Strait of Hormuz closure drives energy and price stress in Iran, Taiwan, South Korea, Guyana and Egypt

Cycle: 2026-05-18 · 35 countries · 0 scored event records · 77 change flags. Figures below are drawn from narrative reporting, not from independently graded source records — treat single-sourced specifics with corresponding caution.

BLUF

The Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the effects now reach well beyond the Gulf. Iran has halted oil shipments from its Kharg Island terminal and carries the highest composite on the board at 65.7. Taiwan reports 11 days of LNG reserves and rose 4.3 points in 24 hours, the largest single move; South Korea's KOSPI fell more than 7% with the won past 1,500; Guyana's fuel import costs are up 74.8% since the start of the year; and the closure is being linked to a forecast 8.5% rise in global food prices in 2026. Iran is the only country whose four indicator groups are all in sustained crisis.

Security continued to deteriorate across the western Sahel and Lake Chad. Mali holds sustained crisis on Governance & Political Risk and Security Risk as the JNIM and Azawad Liberation Front blockade tightens supply lines into Bamako; a single attack in Tillabéri, Niger, killed at least 60; Chad declared a state of emergency after Boko Haram attacks and faces a separate military threat from a Sudanese general; 17 police were killed in an attack on a training camp in Yobe, Nigeria.

Governments and constitutional arrangements came under strain in several unconnected states. Somalia's president's term expired on 15 May with electoral talks collapsed and a unilateral "transition period" declared. South Sudan saw US visa restrictions, the dismissal of the army chief and finance minister, and contested amendments to the 2018 peace agreement. Bosnia's High Representative resigned warning of state dissolution as Republika Srpska renewed secession threats. Israel's Knesset moved toward dissolution over the conscription crisis, and Iraq's new prime minister took office with nine portfolios unfilled.

Israeli, Hezbollah and Iranian forces continued reciprocal strikes. Lebanon fell 1.3 points, the largest move among the leading countries, after strikes that killed a Hezbollah commander in Beirut's southern suburbs and a renewed US Level 4 'Do Not Travel' advisory. An Israeli strike killed Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad, reported from both Israel and Gaza. Reporting of secret Israeli bases in Iraq and IRGC threats against US shipping extended the confrontation beyond the immediate border. Full board: dashboard.

Watch list — 24h

¹ All four indicator groups in sustained crisis: Governance & Political Risk, Operating Environment, Security Risk, Macro Conditions (Iran).

No country holds RED on any individual indicator group; every triangulated indicator score sits below the RED threshold, so no second footnote applies.

Largest deteriorations (composite Δ): Nepal -1.5, Lebanon -1.3, Iraq -1.1, South Sudan -1.0, Egypt -0.8, Moldova -0.8. Largest improvements: Taiwan +4.3 (largest 24h mover), Guyana +1.7, Niger +0.9, Myanmar +0.8, Somalia / Nigeria / Ukraine +0.6.

Cross-cutting themes

Strait of Hormuz closure drives energy and price stress in Iran, Taiwan, South Korea, Guyana and Egypt

Iran's primary export terminal at Kharg Island has stopped shipping while the Strait remains closed, and the IRGC is expanding its maritime control zone and planning new transit fees. The disruption is being linked to a forecast 8.5% rise in global food prices in 2026, and the energy and currency effects are now landing on import-dependent economies far from the Gulf.

• Taiwan: 11 days of LNG reserves reported, attributed to the blockade; composite up 4.3, the largest 24-hour move, against a 13.69% Q1 GDP print (18 May).
• South Korea: KOSPI down more than 7%, won past 1,500, April inflation at a 21-month high of 2.6%, with the Bank of Korea signalling rate rises (18 May).
• Guyana: fuel import costs up 74.8% since the start of 2026 (18 May).
• Egypt: LNG imports expanded for Q3 2026 alongside a 217% rise in Russian crude imports after a US sanctions waiver (18 May).
• Iraq: cut oil prices for buyers routing through the Strait (18 May).

Jihadist attacks escalate across Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon

Mali holds sustained crisis on both Governance & Political Risk and Security Risk, with the JNIM and Azawad Liberation Front offensive blockading routes into Bamako, suspending domestic flights and tightening the capital's supply lines. Attacks intensified across the western Sahel and Lake Chad basin over the same period.

• Niger: at least 60 killed in an attack on a military engineering unit in Garbougna, Tillabéri; ten French media outlets suspended; composite up 0.9 (18 May).
• Chad: sustained crisis on Security Risk at 66.5; 20-day state of emergency after Boko Haram attacks, plus a direct military threat from a Sudanese general against N'Djamena (18 May).
• Nigeria: 17 police killed at a training camp in Yobe; recurring national grid collapse degrading the operating environment (18 May).
• Cameroon: a three-day "ghost town" declared in the Anglophone regions; 14 suspected separatists reported killed, with civilian-casualty allegations (18 May).

Governments and constitutional arrangements strain in Somalia, South Sudan, Bosnia, Iraq, Israel and the Philippines

Somalia's electoral process broke down and President Mohamud's four-year term expired on 15 May without a successor agreement, the government declaring a "transition period" that the opposition rejects. Comparable institutional pressure appeared independently across several states.

• South Sudan: US visa restrictions and a corporate blacklisting; army chief and finance minister dismissed; 47 Machar-allied MPs revoked; peace-deal amendments contested (18 May).
• Bosnia and Herzegovina: High Representative Schmidt announced a June resignation and warned the UN Security Council of state dissolution; Republika Srpska renewed independence threats (18 May).
• Iraq: Ali al-Zaidi took office as prime minister with nine portfolios — including Interior and Defence — unfilled; multiple blocs declared opposition (18 May).
• Israel: the Knesset moved toward dissolution and early elections over the ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis (18 May).
• Philippines: the Senate prepared an impeachment court for Vice-President Sara Duterte, with a shooting reported inside the Senate complex (18 May).

Israeli, Hezbollah and Iranian forces trade strikes across Lebanon, Gaza, Iran and Syria

An Israeli strike killed Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad, reported from both Israel and Gaza, alongside intensified Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. Reporting of secret Israeli bases in Iraq and IRGC threats against US shipping widened the confrontation beyond the immediate frontier.

• Lebanon: a Hezbollah operations commander killed in Beirut's southern suburbs; the US re-issued a Level 4 'Do Not Travel' advisory; composite down 1.3 (18 May).
• Palestine: senior Hamas leader killed, Gaza bombing intensified, the Cabinet warning of a disease outbreak among displaced people; 154 reported settler attacks in the West Bank in one week (18 May).
• Israel: reports of secret Iraq bases supporting air operations against Iran; an IDF reservist killed in continued Hezbollah exchanges; travel warnings raised for 80 countries (18 May).
• Iran: the IRGC threatened a "heavy assault" on US shipping; a reported UAE strike on an Iranian refinery and a drone attack on the UAE Barakah plant (18 May).
• Syria: Russia resumed military cargo shipments for the first time since December 2024; ISIS claimed a deadly attack on an army bus in Hasakah (18 May).

Country daily updates

GREEN-rated countries are omitted (Armenia 24.9, Azerbaijan 29.6 — flipped to GREEN, Turks and Caicos 18.7). No country is RED. Regions follow the mean composite of their AMBER countries: Sub-Saharan Africa, then Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and Caribbean, Indo-Asia-Pacific, Europe.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mali — 64.4 AMBER, Δ -0.2. Jihadist activity in the Mopti region produced dozens of casualties as a JNIM and Azawad Liberation Front offensive in the north continued to blockade routes to Bamako, deepening the capital's supply disruption; road transport companies suspended operations and Amnesty International called for adherence to humanitarian law. Malian forces, supported by Russian mercenaries, conducted airstrikes against the rebel alliance. Sky Mali suspended domestic flights to northern and central areas and travel advisories now recommend against all travel. Governance & Political Risk and Security Risk are both in sustained crisis at 67.2 and 69.9.

South Sudan — 60.2 AMBER, Δ -1.0. The US imposed targeted visa restrictions on officials and blacklisted Crawford Capital over the peace process; Juba rejected the measures. President Kiir dismissed the army chief and finance minister and revoked 47 Machar-allied MPs, while tabled amendments to the 2018 peace agreement drew opposition protest over a lack of consultation. The EU Head of Mission warned the country is not ready for December elections. Intercommunal clashes in Rumbek North killed 14; a two-week trucker strike on the Juba-Nimule highway ended after government renovation pledges.

Somalia — 54.5 AMBER, Δ +0.6. Three-day federal-opposition electoral talks collapsed without consensus, and President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's four-year term ended on 15 May; the government declared a "transition period" and intent to pursue one-person, one-vote elections, which the opposition rejects as a constitutional crisis. The Somali National Army reported killing around 50 Al-Shabaab fighters near Baidoa, but two senior commanders were killed in an ambush in the same area. A piracy resurgence off the coast, with at least three vessels held, adds a maritime-trade risk, and shilling depreciation is driving dollarisation.

Chad — 53.8 AMBER, Δ -0.3. A Sudanese general issued a direct military threat against N'Djamena airport and Amdjarass, alongside a declared state of emergency and national mourning after deadly Boko Haram attacks in the Lake Chad region. President Déby visited eastern Chad following intercommunal violence, and the government rejected UN accusations of civilian casualties from anti-Boko Haram airstrikes. Food insecurity has reached crisis levels in refugee-concentrated areas of the east. Security Risk is in sustained crisis at 66.5.

DR Congo — 51.6 AMBER, Δ -0.2. Codeco attacks in Djugu, Ituri, reportedly killed at least 69 civilians and ADF attacks at least 36 in North Kivu and Ituri, with MONUSCO warning of a wave of civilian killings. M23 reportedly withdrew from several strategic towns north of Uvira in South Kivu, with FARDC and Wazalendo taking control, though clashes continued in North Kivu and Human Rights Watch accused M23 and Rwanda of war crimes. An Ebola resurgence in Ituri has prompted health alerts.

Nigeria — 48.5 AMBER, Δ +0.6. Recurring national grid collapse continues, with only 10 of 28 plants generating, degrading the operating environment. Seventeen police officers were killed in an attack on a Yobe training camp, while a joint operation reportedly killed a key ISIL leader in Borno. S&P upgraded the long-term rating to 'B' (stable), but headline inflation rose to 15.69% in April and manufacturing contracted.

Ethiopia — 47.7 AMBER, Δ +0.2. An armed attack on civilian transport in Benishangul-Gumuz reportedly killed over 30. The TPLF restored its pre-war legislative council and re-elected Debretsion Gebremichael, challenging the Pretoria agreement and drawing AU and UN concern. Cross-border tensions with Sudan intensified, with reciprocal accusations of drone strikes. A Food Security Outlook warned of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes ahead of the lean season.

Niger — 46.7 AMBER, Δ +0.9. An attack on a military engineering unit in Garbougna, Tillabéri, killed at least 60, including military and civilians, near the Malian border. The military regime suspended ten French media outlets including AFP, France 24 and RFI, deepening diplomatic isolation; Canada maintains an 'avoid all travel' advisory. A joint US-Nigerian operation reportedly killed a senior ISIS commander in Nigeria.

Cameroon — 44.4 AMBER, Δ -0.9. The Ambazonia Governing Council declared a three-day "ghost town" in the Anglophone Northwest and Southwest coinciding with National Day; 14 suspected separatists were reportedly killed alongside civilian-casualty allegations, and an incursion into the Western region caused one death and 13 abductions. Opposition leader Maurice Kamto called a proposed constitutional amendment a "constitutional coup," and the government nationalised energy company Eneo into state-owned SOCADEL.

Eritrea — 39.9 AMBER, Δ -0.3. Reporting suggests the US is poised to lift 2021 sanctions on Eritrea's military and ruling party. Eritrea has deepened Red Sea security and economic cooperation with Egypt — including naval drones and a maritime transport agreement — countering Ethiopian sea-access ambitions and raising Horn of Africa tensions. Land borders with Ethiopia and Djibouti remain closed.

Middle East and North Africa

Iran — 65.7 AMBER (all four indicator groups in sustained crisis), Δ -0.7. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, halting shipments from Kharg Island, with the disruption linked to a forecast 8.5% rise in global food prices in 2026. Tehran rejected a US peace proposal and President Trump described nuclear talks as on "life support." A reported UAE strike on an Iranian refinery prompted retaliation, and a drone attack targeted the UAE Barakah plant; the IRGC threatened a "heavy assault" on US shipping while expanding its maritime control zone and planning new transit fees. Domestically, reporting points to a shift toward the security establishment, with layoffs, internet blackouts and a deepening Tehran water crisis.

Palestine — 63.8 AMBER, Δ 0.0. An Israeli airstrike reportedly killed senior Hamas military leader Izz al-Din al-Haddad, followed by intensified bombing across Gaza with multiple casualties. The Palestinian Cabinet warned of a potential disease outbreak among displaced people and reported detainee abuse; humanitarian aid began arriving via a temporary pier but remains insufficient. In the West Bank, the Cabinet cited 154 settler attacks in one week. Operating Environment and Macro Conditions are in sustained crisis at 64.8 and 68.4.

Lebanon — 57.7 AMBER, Δ -1.3. Cross-border strikes intensified despite a 45-day ceasefire extension, with extensive Israeli strikes on the Tyre district and Bekaa Valley and a Hezbollah operations commander killed in Beirut's southern suburbs. Hezbollah responded with drone and rocket attacks and publicly rejected de-escalation pressure. The US re-issued a Level 4 'Do Not Travel' advisory. The economy minister described the conflict's impact as "existential"; Washington talks produced no breakthrough.

Iraq — 50.1 AMBER, Δ -1.1. Ali al-Zaidi took office as prime minister with nine portfolios — including Interior and Defence — unfilled; the 'National Contract', 'Sumerians' and Kata'ib Hezbollah's political wing declared opposition. International media alleged covert foreign military bases in the western desert, which the military denied; the US reissued a 'Do Not Travel' advisory and charged an Iran-backed commander. The Gulf electricity interconnection is nearing completion.

Syria — 45.0 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Fuel and gas price increases of 17–29.5% are expected to trigger a new inflation wave, with economists warning of 50–60% consumer price rises. Against that, the EU reinstated its Cooperation Agreement and a first Syrian-Emirati Investment Forum produced preliminary infrastructure and aviation agreements. Russia resumed military cargo shipments for the first time since December 2024, and ISIS claimed a deadly attack on an army bus in Hasakah.

Libya — 44.4 AMBER, Δ -0.4. Security forces launched a large-scale operation in Zawiya after armed clashes and explosions near the city's oil terminal, following earlier deadly fighting in Tripoli. The Libyan National Army conducted its largest-ever exercises in the east and south with over 25,000 troops; western and eastern units also joined US Flintlock 2026 and Turkish EFES-2026. UNSMIL reiterated warnings about entrenched armed groups and political stalemate.

Israel — 42.9 AMBER, Δ -0.1. The Knesset moved toward dissolution and early elections over the ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis. Reporting alleges secret Israeli military bases in Iraq, with US assistance, supporting air campaigns against Iran. The Defence Minister moved to implement a West Bank death penalty law; Hezbollah exchanges continued including an IDF reservist killed; an airstrike killed Hamas military chief Izz al-Din al-Haddad. Travel warnings were raised for 80 countries.

Egypt — 33.6 AMBER, Δ -0.8. Annual urban inflation slowed unexpectedly to 14.9% in April while the pound weakened to 52.90/USD; LNG imports are expanding for Q3 2026 alongside a 217% rise in Russian crude after a US sanctions waiver. Cairo International Airport saw over 130 delayed departures and 15 cancellations. Egyptian forces joined the multinational "Flintlock 2026" exercise and deployed to four Gulf states in a stated regional-stability role.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 49.6 AMBER, Δ 0.0. A human-rights organisation reported a near-200% rise in forced disappearances over the past year alongside continued security-force killings. The government circulated draft oil-law regulations to energy companies to attract investment, while electricity rationing of five to eight hours daily persists. The Central Bank projects single-digit inflation from May. The deportation of Maduro associate Alex Saab to the US and a first World Bank delegation visit since 2019 point to shifting external engagement.

Guyana — 40.6 AMBER, Δ +1.7. Border tensions with Venezuela rose during ICJ oral hearings on the Essequibo region, where Venezuela alleged the 1899 award was based on "threats"; a Guyana Defence Force patrol came under fire near the border, with two injuries. Fuel import costs have risen 74.8% since the start of 2026. The Carter Center flagged systemic flaws in the 2025 electoral architecture, and Canada raised its travel advisory to a 'high degree of caution.'

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 59.3 AMBER, Δ +0.8. The Tatmadaw recaptured Falam and Maw Luu and reasserted control over the Mandalay-Myitkyina road, alongside renewed offensives with reported village burnings and civilian casualties in Magway and intensified clashes near Sittwe. The regime is pursuing diplomatic engagement, with an ASEAN virtual ministerial agreed and speculation of a Russia-ASEAN Summit invitation for Min Aung Hlaing; the NUG urged non-recognition. A 100-day blockade of Chinese imports and rotating Yangon power cuts compound the operating environment.

Pakistan — 46.9 AMBER, Δ -0.6. The TTP claimed 14 attacks across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa following a Bannu police-post attack that killed 15 personnel; subsequent operations reportedly killed 17 militants, and a Lakki Marwat market blast killed 9. Section 144 was imposed across Balochistan. Pakistan rejected Indian Army Chief statements amid analyst warnings of escalation risk between the nuclear neighbours; a temporary ban on new gas connections signals an energy crisis.

Philippines — 46.2 AMBER, Δ -0.6. The Senate is preparing an impeachment court for Vice-President Sara Duterte, with a shooting reported inside the Senate complex. Widespread power cuts hit Luzon and Visayas before grid normalisation. The Philippines, US and allies concluded the largest-ever Balikatan exercises against 62 reported Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea in April; armed conflict in Negros Occidental displaced 800 and killed 19.

Bangladesh — 47.9 AMBER, Δ 0.0. The government is reportedly planning to withdraw all army personnel from field-level deployment by June, a potential easing of internal security posture. A High Court inquiry was sought into the prior interim government's 18-month tenure. Annual inflation rose to 9.04% in April, and US energy-sector cooperation prompted protest rallies against "anti-national trade agreements." All four indicator groups are deteriorating.

Nepal — 40.2 AMBER, Δ -1.5. The central bank moved to collect Rs 45bn in deposits as a liquidity measure. The Supreme Court stayed a ban on civil-servant trade unions, and a student-union ban sparked Kathmandu protests. Nepal is preparing to request a three-year deferral of its LDC graduation; inflation rose to 4.47% and capital expenditure remains at 27.91% of budget.

Taiwan — 38.6 AMBER, Δ +4.3. Taiwan reports 11 days of LNG reserves, attributed to the Strait of Hormuz closure — a material risk for the semiconductor supply chain. Legislative cuts to the defence budget prompted AIT clarification requests on US arms sales; President Lai reaffirmed the cross-strait status quo after the Trump-Xi summit. Q1 2026 GDP growth hit a near 39-year high of 13.69% on AI-driven exports, but April inflation accelerated to 1.74%.

Indonesia — 37.7 AMBER, Δ -0.5. A civilian shooting in Central Papua produced conflicting TNI and OPM accounts. The Constitutional Court affirmed Jakarta's capital status pending a Nusantara decree. Non-subsidised fuel prices rose on global tensions; counter-terrorism operations arrested eight suspects in Central Sulawesi; the General Election Law revision remains stalled.

Republic of Korea — 36.3 AMBER, Δ 0.0. The KOSPI fell more than 7% after briefly topping 8,000, the won passed 1,500, and April inflation reached a 21-month high of 2.6%, prompting Bank of Korea rate-rise signals. A martial-law constitutional amendment was dropped from a plenary vote; the 2026 Unification White Paper proposed a "peaceful two-state relationship." The US urged Korea to join a Strait of Hormuz maritime mission.

Europe

Ukraine — 49.1 AMBER, Δ +0.6. Reciprocal drone and missile attacks escalated sharply: a Ukrainian barrage on Moscow reportedly killed four, and Russian strikes involving over 1,400 UAVs targeted energy, oil, gas and railway infrastructure across five regions, with 24 fatalities in a Kyiv apartment block and widespread power outages. Both sides accuse the other of ceasefire violations; the EU condemned the strikes and announced further drone aid.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 41.1 AMBER, Δ -0.2. High Representative Christian Schmidt announced his June resignation and warned the UN Security Council of potential state dissolution. Milorad Dodik reiterated threats to declare Republika Srpska independence if a state-property law is imposed, coinciding with a Security Council debate; EU-related laws were omitted from the Council of Ministers' agenda over SNSD opposition.

Moldova — 39.3 AMBER, Δ -0.8. The Russian State Duma adopted a draft law permitting military intervention abroad to "protect Russian citizens," and Russia eased citizenship rules for Transnistria residents — both read in Chișinău as security and sovereignty pressure. Moldovan airspace was briefly closed after a drone intrusion during a Russian strike on Ukraine. The National Bank raised its key rate to 6.5% as April inflation hit 6.8%.

Georgia — 35.5 AMBER, Δ -0.7. A senior public official was arrested on espionage charges, and nine opposition parties formed a new alliance that Georgian Dream dismissed and President Zourabichvili backed with a call for early elections. PM Kobakhidze accused Europarliamentarians of blackmail and a pro-government channel was banned from the European Parliament. Fitch affirmed 'BB' (stable) and a USD 70m cement investment was announced.

Top sources for follow-up reading

Individual figures above are taken from narrative reporting rather than independently graded source records, so single-sourced specifics should be treated with corresponding caution. Follow-up reading is best taken from the live platform: the dashboard for the full board, and the per-country pages linked against each entry — for example Iran, Mali and Lebanon.