Everything we have written, in full.
Each issue takes the period across all 35 countries and writes it up: what moved, and what we think it connects to. It draws on the same nightly record the live pages run on. New issues appear most weeks, and the archive below holds all of them. You do not need an account to read any of it.
The latest issue
Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed as Gulf revenues squeeze Iraq and Egypt
South Sudan sits at the top of the global scale (composite 99.9) after fresh clashes between SPLA-IO and government forces across several states on 9 August; the US condemned the fighting and civilian casualties on 7 August, and Uganda began training South Sudanese forces on 8 August as relations between President Kiir and Riek Machar worsened.
- Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed as Gulf revenues squeeze Iraq and Egypt
- Netanyahu rejects the US Gaza plan as famine warnings mount and strikes hit south Lebanon
- Russia widens its strike campaign against Ukraine and its neighbours
- Jihadist violence spans the Sahel and Lake Chad as armies go on the offensive
| Top of the watch list | Composite | Band |
|---|---|---|
| South Sudan | 99.9 | RRED |
| Somalia | 98.4 | RRED |
| DR Congo | 97.3 | RRED |
The ten highest on the morning it was published. All 35 are on the global page.
What has stayed on the page
Five threads account for most of the cross-cutting writing since May. Three have run in all but one issue, while Ukraine and Russia has appeared in two.
| Story | 18 May | 26 May | 1 Jun | 14 Jun | 22 Jun | 29 Jun | 19 Jul | 20 Jul | 25 Jul | 27 Jul | 3 Aug | 10 Aug | Ran in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran and the Strait of Hormuz | 12 of 12 | ||||||||||||
| Israel, Gaza and Lebanon | 11 of 12 | ||||||||||||
| The Sahel and Lake Chad | 12 of 12 | ||||||||||||
| Horn of Africa and DR Congo | 7 of 12 | ||||||||||||
| Ukraine and Russia | 2 of 12 |
The archive
| Issue | Lead theme | Highest composite | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz closed as Gulf revenues squeeze Iraq and EgyptNetanyahu rejects the US Gaza plan as famine warnings mount and strikes hit south Lebanon · Russia widens its strike campaign against Ukraine and its neighbours · Jihadist violence spans the Sahel and Lake Chad as armies go on the offensive | South Sudan 99.9 | 18 min | |
| US strike threats and attacks on Gulf shipping keep Iran on a war footingHamas agrees to disarm under a US-brokered Gaza plan as Israel-Iran strikes pause · Jihadist attacks intensify across the Sahel and Lake Chad basin · Power shortages and currency falls drive economic unrest from Tripoli to Dhaka | South Sudan 99.8 | 19 min | |
| US-Iran exchanges and a mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz raise energy and shipping riskIsraeli operations run across Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon and southern Syria · Jihadist pressure intensifies across the Sahel and northern Nigeria · Fuel and food prices drive economic stress across several markets | South Sudan 100.0 | 16 min | |
| US strikes on Iran push Basra crude past $100 and spill into Iraq and the GulfRussia and Ukraine trade long-range strikes as the EU adopts new sanctions · US tariffs and travel warnings land on a widening set of states · Power and fuel failures spread from the Caucasus to the Sahel and Gaza | South Sudan 100.0 | 18 min | |
| US strikes reach Iran's ports and power grid as the war spreads to Jordan, Kuwait and BahrainSahel armies suffer their heaviest losses of the month in Mali and Niger · Washington winds down security commitments in Iraq, Somalia and Nigeria · Venezuela's earthquake recovery collides with declassified election-rigging intelligence | South Sudan 99.2 | 23 min | |
| US-Iran attacks harden into open war and close the Strait of HormuzIsrael dissolves the Knesset for October elections as Gaza strikes continue and Hamas hands over administration · Sahel militaries claim heavy militant tolls while suffering a major ambush in Mali · Washington pulls back security commitments from Mogadishu to Baghdad | South Sudan 97.3 | 16 min | |
| Twin earthquakes devastate central-northern Venezuela; US Southern Command deploys for reliefUS-Iran MoU signed, then immediately tested across air, maritime and proxy fronts · Lebanon-Israel-US framework signed in Washington, immediately rejected by Hezbollah and Berri · Sahel state-targeting continues; Mali's transitional mandate extended to 2030 | South Sudan 96.7 | 24 min | |
| US-Iran peace deal signed, immediately testedLebanon-Israel front intensifies despite ceasefire; Gaza ceasefire violations mount · Sahel under sustained jihadist pressure; capital-city attacks · Federal fragmentation and electoral ruptures across the African Great Lakes and Horn | Palestine 62.8 | 25 min | |
| US-Iran direct exchange closes the Strait of HormuzIsraeli ground push pivots to Nabatieh; West Bank settlement plan approved · Horn of Africa: convergent political ruptures, famine signals and Ebola · Sahel pressure intensifies as French and US forces step back | Palestine 60.3 | 26 min | |
| Strait of Hormuz partially reopens as US-Iran ceasefire extendsIsraeli ground push deepens into Lebanon and Gaza · Mali Defence Minister killed; Sahel security architecture continues to break down · Constitutional fragmentation across the Horn and Ebola PHEIC in eastern DRC | Palestine 67.4 | 25 min | |
| Strait of Hormuz: US strikes and IRGC threats while a framework via Islamabad takes shapeNorthern Israel-Lebanon front intensifies through the ceasefire extension · Bamako blockade and Lake Chad emergency compound Sahel pressure · Eastern DRC Ebola PHEIC and Horn of Africa political ruptures | Palestine 64.7 | 22 min | |
| Strait of Hormuz closure drives energy and price stress in Iran, Taiwan, South Korea, Guyana and EgyptJihadist attacks escalate across Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon · Governments and constitutional arrangements strain in Somalia, South Sudan, Bosnia, Iraq, Israel and the Philippines · Israeli, Hezbollah and Iranian forces trade strikes across Lebanon, Gaza, Iran and Syria | Iran 65.7 | 18 min |
Key
Composite runs 0 to 100 against each country's own baseline; RED is 70 and above. The watch list in each issue is the ten highest on the morning it was published, so an issue records what we thought at the time rather than a view revised since. Threads are counted from the cross-cutting section of each issue, not the regional pages. Definitions and method: Methodology.
A single good call proves nothing, so the archive stays up in full, including the issues we would write differently now. If you would rather have the countries you carry than all 35, that is what an account is for.