US-Iran exchanges and a mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz raise energy and shipping risk

BLUF

An oil tanker struck a mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz on 27 July, according to Iranian state-affiliated media, two days after US missiles struck targets across Iran (25 July) and US forces hit Iranian maritime and air-defence assets (23 July). Iran's composite rose 1.8 points over 48 hours to 92.5.
In DR Congo, the UN reported 60 civilians killed along the North Kivu-Ituri border since 12 July (24 July), while the Ebola outbreak passed 3,000 cases on 27 July; the country's composite stands at 98.2, second only to South Sudan.
Israel's cabinet approved the entry of a multinational stabilisation force and a "Board of Peace" into Gaza on 26 July, as Israeli forces struck about 150 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon (to 25 July) and entered southern Syria (26 July).
Twenty-three of the 35 monitored countries now sit in the high-risk band, with fuel and food prices climbing across Bangladesh, Egypt, Nigeria, Libya and Pakistan. Full country-by-country scoring is on the Global Risk board.

Watch list — 48h

#	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ 48h	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan	100.0	RED²	0.0	Humanitarian update records worsening conflict and aid-worker deaths
2	DR Congo	98.2	RED²	+1.5	60 civilians killed on North Kivu-Ituri border; Ebola cases pass 3,000
3	Somalia	97.6	RED²	+1.2	US to halt AUSSOM funding by end-2026; forces kill 16 al-Shabaab militants
4	Myanmar	95.9	RED²	+0.9	Over 500 Rohingya feared dead in boat capsizings; military escalates civilian attacks
5	Venezuela	95.3	RED²	+0.8	Earthquake toll reaches 5,546; World Bank estimates $19.6bn in damage
6	Palestinian Territories	94.5	RED²	0.0	Israel approves multinational force for Gaza; three years of blackouts
7	Syria	94.4	RED²	+1.2	President Al-Sharaa seeks security deal with Israel; UN chief urges sanctions removal
8	Mali	93.2	RED²	-0.7	UN demands accountability for 50 soldiers killed near Gao
9	Iran	92.5	RED²	+1.8	Oil tanker explodes after striking mine in Strait of Hormuz; US missile strikes
10	Chad	91.9	RED²	+0.9	Chad withdraws from the ICC; drone attack from Sudan injures civilians

² Also holding at the top of the severity range across several dimensions: South Sudan, DR Congo, Somalia, Myanmar, Venezuela, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, Mali, Iran, Chad, Ethiopia, Libya, Lebanon, Niger, Cameroon, Eritrea, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iraq, Ukraine, Nepal and Egypt.

Largest 48-hour deteriorations: Turks and Caicos Islands (+6.2, from a low base and still low risk), Guyana (+5.6) and Georgia (+4.8). Largest improvements: Indonesia (-0.9), Mali (-0.7) and Nigeria (-0.6).

Cross-cutting themes

US-Iran exchanges and a mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz raise energy and shipping risk

An oil tanker struck a mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz on 27 July, reported by Iranian state-affiliated media (single-source — treat with caution). US missiles struck targets across Iran on 25 July, following US strikes on Iranian maritime capabilities and air-defence assets on 23 July; Iran fired at US bases in neighbouring Arab states.

Egypt pressed for US-Iran de-escalation and safeguards for navigation in Hormuz (23–25 July, B1), with a proposal involving Oman under discussion.
Bahrain intercepted Iranian aerial attacks on 21 July.
In Iraq, coalition forces downed eight drones targeting Erbil (23 July), and the US Embassy in Baghdad urged reconsidering Middle East travel (23 July).
Energy and price effects spread: crude reached $100 as Nigeria warned of higher pump and transport costs (26 July), and Egypt raised fuel prices across all categories (27 July).

Israeli operations run across Gaza, the West Bank, southern Lebanon and southern Syria

Israel's cabinet approved the entry of a multinational stabilisation force and a "Board of Peace" into Gaza on 26 July, and Prime Minister Netanyahu travelled to Washington to meet President Trump. An Israeli officer and soldier were killed in the West Bank on 24 July, prompting a military operation and more than 70 detentions.

Israel struck about 150 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon over two days to 25 July (B2), and conducted artillery attacks and demolitions; the Lebanese Army accused the IDF of destroying infrastructure (26 July) and President Aoun condemned the destruction (27 July).
Israeli forces entered southern Syria on 26 July, shelling and dropping warning leaflets; Syrian President Al-Sharaa sought a security agreement with Israel on 27 July.
Gaza faces three years of electricity blackouts with 80% of its power sector destroyed (24 July); the World Food Programme warned of further aid cuts, and over two-thirds of the population risks severe hunger by year-end (23 July).

Jihadist pressure intensifies across the Sahel and northern Nigeria

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights demanded accountability on 23 July for 50 Malian soldiers killed near Gao, with online images showing captured troops being executed. The US weighed military action against JNIM on 24 July, and Bamako dismissed the reports and asserted its sovereignty.

In Niger, 16 soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack in the Tillabéri region (17 July), and Islamic State affiliates are reinforcing fighters across Sahel borders.
In Nigeria, armed assailants killed at least 30 people, including eight children, in a Kaduna village (27 July, B2); President Tinubu approved a military expansion of 28,000 troops (25 July).
A drone attack from Sudan injured civilians in eastern Chad (23 July), where a food-security crisis persists (24 July); Chad withdrew from the ICC (27 July).
In Cameroon, a match official was shot dead and three people abducted in Manyu (27 July) as the Anglophone crisis continued (23 July).

Fuel and food prices drive economic stress across several markets

Bangladesh's July inflation reached 11.66%, a 13-year high, with food inflation at 14.10% (27 July, B2); President Mohammed Shahabuddin resigned on 25 July, and the US imposed a new 10% tariff on Bangladeshi imports (24 July).

Egypt raised fuel prices across all categories on 27 July, moving its macro risk to RED, and the pound weakened against the dollar.
Protests erupted in Tripoli over power cuts on 27 July (B2), with demonstrators shutting roads and the foreign ministry during extreme heat.
In Nigeria, petrol reached ₦1,400 per litre and transport fares rose (24 July).
In Venezuela, the bolívar weakened, with the official rate set at 742.22 Bs/USD (27 July); in Pakistan, monsoon floods have killed more than 100 people since June.

Country daily updates

Sub Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 100.0 RED, Δ 0.0 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). A humanitarian update on 18 July recorded worsening conflict and further aid-worker deaths. SPLM-IO figure Oyet accused President Kiir of arming the White Army (24 July) and of planning to rig the 2026 elections (23 July). Kiir signed peace-deal amendments on 22 July clearing the path to December 2026 polls and confirmed he will seek re-election. China pledged stronger military cooperation on 24 July, while a deepening fuel crisis has pushed transport costs up as the South Sudanese pound falls.

DR Congo — 98.2 RED, Δ +1.5. The UN reported 60 civilians killed along the North Kivu-Ituri border since 12 July, including 30 near Mambasa (24 July, A2). At least 16 people died in a suspected ADF attack on 23 July, with a further ADF attack killing 18 civilians in Ituri on 24 July. The Ebola outbreak passed 3,000 cases on 27 July, with healthcare workers on strike since 14 July. Eastern airports remain closed or restricted (20 July), and the FCDO advises against travel to Kisangani airport after drone attacks (17 July).

Somalia — 97.6 RED, Δ +1.2. The US said on 25 July it will halt funding for the AUSSOM peacekeeping mission by end-2026, and African Union members questioned the mission's future on 22 July. Somali forces killed 16 al-Shabaab militants in Middle Shabelle and Hiran on 26–27 July. The Norwegian Refugee Council reported on 23 July that millions face acute hunger as funding falls short. The Somali Future Council urged troop contributors to back an inclusive political settlement (27 July).

Mali — 93.2 RED, Δ -0.7. The UN demanded accountability on 23 July for 50 soldiers killed near Gao, with online images showing captured troops being executed. The US weighed military action against JNIM on 24 July; Bamako dismissed the reports and asserted its sovereignty. Malian forces conducted air-and-ground operations against militants on 20 July, days after a convoy was ambushed in the Gao region (18 July). Canada and the US maintained "avoid all travel" and "do not travel" advisories (22–23 July).

Chad — 91.9 RED, Δ +0.9. Chad announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court on 27 July. A drone attack from Sudan injured civilians and destroyed property in the east on 23 July. ReliefWeb reported a persistent food-security crisis in the east on 24 July, driven by attacks and high prices. Chad and France rebuilt military cooperation on 21 July after an 18-month dispute, and the World Bank urged accelerated reforms (24 July).

Ethiopia — 90.5 RED, Δ +0.7. Ethiopia and Eritrea deployed troops near their shared Tigray border on 25 July. The military intensified operations against the Fano militia in Amhara, and TPLF fighters resumed incursions along the Eritrea-Tigray border. Targeted violence persisted in Oromia despite the peace agreement. Renewed arrivals were reported at Tigray displacement sites.

Niger — 87.4 RED, Δ 0.0. Sixteen soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack in the Tillabéri region on 17 July. Reporting on 25 July described deepening insecurity and political stagnation three years after the coup. President Tiani alleged on 27 July that France is preparing a third attack. Human Rights Watch reported worsening security and abusive counterinsurgency on 23 July, and Islamic State affiliates are reinforcing fighters across Sahel borders.

Cameroon — 86.9 RED, Δ +1.3. President Biya's 50-day absence drew calls for clarity and reports of a dynastic succession plot (24–27 July). A match official was shot dead and three people abducted during a football tournament in Manyu on 27 July, and the Anglophone crisis continued with clashes and humanitarian strain (23 July). Cameroon reported 19 cholera deaths in the Far North on 27 July, and a former top security official was publicly disgraced (24 July).

Eritrea — 86.8 RED, Δ +0.6. Ethiopia and Eritrea deployed troops near the Tigray border on 25 July. The US tariff surcharge on Eritrean crude oil and petroleum expired on 24 July, easing some economic pressure. Egypt and Eritrea activated a maritime transport agreement to expand Red Sea trade on 19 July. Fuel prices quadrupled and sales were halted in mid-July.

Nigeria — 85.2 RED, Δ -0.6. Armed assailants killed at least 30 people, including eight children, in a Kaduna village on 27 July (B2). President Tinubu approved a military expansion of 28,000 troops on 25 July. With crude at $100, petrol reached ₦1,400 per litre and transport fares rose (24–26 July). The air force completed acceptance tests for Italian M-346 jets (27 July).

Middle East and North Africa

Palestinian Territories — 94.5 RED, Δ 0.0 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). Israel's cabinet approved the entry of a multinational stabilisation force and a "Board of Peace" into Gaza on 26 July. Gaza faces three years of electricity blackouts with 80% of its power sector destroyed (24 July), and the World Food Programme warned of further aid cuts. Over two-thirds of the population risks severe hunger by year-end (23 July). The Palestinian Authority said it will pay only 50% of public-sector salaries (23 July).

Syria — 94.4 RED, Δ +1.2. President Al-Sharaa sought a security agreement with Israel on 27 July while ruling out intervention in Lebanon. Israeli forces entered southern Syria on 26 July, shelling and dropping warning leaflets. UN Secretary-General Guterres visited on 26 July, urging immediate removal of sanctions and support for the transition. A road accident on the Damascus-Deir ez-Zor road killed 35 people (25 July).

Iran — 92.5 RED, Δ +1.8 (largest 48h composite mover among the top ten). An oil tanker struck a mine and exploded in the Strait of Hormuz on 27 July, per Iranian state-affiliated media (single-source — treat with caution). US missiles struck targets across Iran on 25 July (B1), following US strikes on Iranian maritime and air-defence assets on 23 July; Iran fired at US bases in the region. Bahrain intercepted Iranian aerial attacks on 21 July. Discussion of a ground campaign increased in Western commentary (24 July).

Libya — 88.4 RED, Δ +2.3. Protests erupted in Tripoli over power cuts on 27 July, with demonstrators shutting roads and the foreign ministry (B2). Widespread outages continued across eastern and western Libya during extreme heat (25 July), and the government declared public holidays (23 July). The dinar weakened in the parallel market (25 July). The US Embassy warned of potential security developments (24 July).

Lebanon — 88.0 RED, Δ +0.5. The Lebanese Army accused the IDF of destroying infrastructure in the south on 26 July and condemned actions hindering its deployment. Israel struck about 150 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon over two days to 25 July (B2), and conducted artillery attacks and demolitions. President Aoun condemned the Israeli destruction on 27 July. The cabinet approved an electricity-sector policy and rejected a tariff rise.

Iraq — 83.5 RED, Δ -0.1. A new strike hit the Abdaly border crossing with Kuwait on 23 July, and coalition forces downed eight drones over Erbil the same day. The US Embassy in Baghdad urged reconsidering Middle East travel (23 July). Iraq's Q1 2026 budget deficit jumped 68% (19 July). PM al-Zaidi concluded a US visit signing 48 economic agreements worth $60 billion (18 July).

Egypt — 72.5 RED, Δ +0.8. Egypt raised fuel prices across all categories on 27 July, moving its macro risk to RED, and the pound weakened against the dollar. Cairo pressed for US-Iran de-escalation and Hormuz navigation safeguards (23–25 July, B1) and pushed for a Gaza stabilisation force. Reports on 24 July described new Israeli military sites near the border. The Petroleum Ministry secured gas supply for peak summer demand (26 July).

Israel — 57.0 AMBER (severe on security), Δ -0.1. Israel said on 27 July it would permit an international force into Gaza. An Israeli officer and soldier were killed in the West Bank on 24 July, prompting a military operation and over 70 detentions. The military said it killed a Hamas drone commander on 27 July. Netanyahu travelled to Washington to meet Trump (26 July).

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 95.3 RED, Δ +0.8. The earthquake death toll rose to 5,546 a month after the disaster (25 July), with the World Bank estimating $19.6 billion in damage (23 July). International aid arrived on 24 July, and Venezuela formally withdrew from the ICC the same day. A leaked CIA report alleged continuous electoral fraud (23 July). The bolívar weakened, with the official rate set at 742.22 Bs/USD (27 July).

Guyana — 67.2 AMBER, Δ +5.6 (largest 48h composite mover). The MV Barima ferry death toll rose to 73, with 30 still unaccounted for (25 July, B2); President Ali announced a Commission of Inquiry, which the opposition rejected. The joint opposition called for Minister Edghill's resignation, and the PM cited an inspection breakdown and heavy cargo. The US imposed a 12.5% "forced-labour" tariff on Guyanese exports (24 July). Venezuela set an election date for the disputed Essequibo region.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 95.9 RED, Δ +0.9. Over 500 Rohingya are feared dead in boat capsizings and suspected shipwrecks off Myanmar (16 July). A monitor warned on 27 July that the military has escalated attacks on civilians under new leadership. Military airstrikes killed five and injured 29 in Rakhine (20 July), and the junta struck flood-hit areas (18 July). NUG-affiliated forces attacked a police station and checkpoint in Magway Region (27 July).

Pakistan — 85.2 RED, Δ +1.0. Fifteen people were killed in a terrorist attack on a police checkpost in Tank, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (25 July). Monsoon rains and floods have killed more than 100 people since June, with fresh fatalities on 27 July. Lt Gen Aamer Raza was promoted to four-star rank and appointed Commander National Strategic Command (27 July). The central bank held its policy rate at 11.5%, and the government announced major spending cuts.

Bangladesh — 84.2 RED, Δ -0.5. July inflation reached 11.66%, a 13-year high, with food inflation at 14.10% (27 July, B2). Food prices surged after floods (26 July), and over 15 million people face acute food insecurity (23 July). President Mohammed Shahabuddin resigned on 25 July, and the US imposed a new 10% tariff on Bangladeshi imports (24 July). Concerns persist over former PM Hasina's possible return from India.

Nepal — 73.2 RED, Δ +0.3. The Nepal Rastra Bank confirmed the minting of a new coin bearing a disputed map on 25 July. Nepali and US armies began the "X Balance Nail" joint exercise the same day. Lawmakers proposed reforms to central-bank leadership selection (25 July), and the bank absorbed Rs 100 billion to manage excess liquidity (22 July).

Philippines — 68.7 AMBER (severe on security and governance), Δ +0.4. A bomb detonated near the Justice Ministry and a suspected device was found near the Senate ahead of President Marcos' State of the Nation Address (27 July). Three China-Philippines clashes in a week sharpened the West Philippine Sea dispute, with the Chinese Coast Guard firing water cannon near Scarborough Shoal (24 July). The peso sank to a new intraday low (24 July), and fuel prices are set to rise for a fifth straight week.

Indonesia — 58.9 AMBER, Δ -0.9. The rupiah weakened to Rp17,969 per dollar after reports of the Bank Indonesia governor's resignation (27 July), and stocks fell on US tariffs and higher oil prices (24 July). The narcotics agency seized 12.3 tons of drugs and arrested 1,259 people (23 July). Protests have spread over a shrinking middle class (21 July).

Taiwan — 41.2 AMBER, Δ +0.5. The TAIEX recorded its largest single-day loss in history, falling 6.47% (17 July), and foreign outflows pushed the Taiwan dollar past NT$32.2 (15 July). US Section 301 tariffs took effect on 25 July, with Taiwan's floor set at 10%. Reserve forces demonstrated drone and special-operations capabilities (24 July).

Europe

Ukraine — 82.9 RED, Δ +0.1. The UN Security Council was set to hold an emergency meeting on Russian Black Sea attacks on 27 July, after Russian strikes paralysed shipping in Ukraine's Black Sea corridor (23 July). A Russian missile strike killed 11 people at a Kyiv Oblast arms exhibition (24 July). Ukrainian drones struck Russian military and energy sites deep inside Russia (24 July). Zelenskyy warned of a new Russian mobilisation and said Moscow again intends to bring in North Korean troops (25–26 July).

Georgia — 63.9 AMBER, Δ +4.8. Georgia suffered two nationwide power outages on 24 July, and the State Security Service opened a sabotage investigation (25 July). The EU sanctioned the Kulevi oil terminal and several cryptocurrency platforms (24 July). Journalist Vakho Sanaia was arrested, a shooting occurred in Tbilisi, and an opposition comedian was attacked (22 July).

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 62.9 AMBER, Δ 0.0. The House of Peoples adopted the 2026 state budget on 27 July over criticism of the emergency procedure, and parliament requested an investigation into the finance minister over the delay (22 July). Fuel prices continued to climb, with natural gas set to rise 14% (25 July). Republika Srpska's Dodik pressed a local appointment in Mrkonjić Grad (23 July). The armed forces acquired anti-drone rifles (22 July).

Moldova — 58.0 AMBER, Δ +0.8. Moldova reported a diesel shortage at more than 50 filling stations on 27 July, and fuel prices rose on Middle East tensions and transport disruption (25 July). A new government under PM Vasile Tofan was sworn in on 22 July, prioritising EU integration, and four pro-Russian parties were dissolved. Two MoldATSA employees were arrested in a corruption case (25 July).