US-Iran attacks harden into open war and close the Strait of Hormuz

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending globally and by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-07-19 · 35 countries · 544 events (7-day window; capped from 642) · 120 change flags. Note: this is the first cycle after a collection gap of 12–18 July; the Δ column therefore reflects movement across the full week, not 24 hours.

BLUF

The United States and Iran are at war. The two countries traded direct attacks on 17 July in what regional outlets describe as a return to full-blown conflict, with Washington completing a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian territory on 18 July and Tehran retaliating across the region — an Iranian strike in Jordan killed two US troops on 18 July, with a third missing. On 19 July Iran suspended its memorandum of understanding with the US. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply since Iran announced the strait's closure on 13 July, and transits dropped further on 17 July as attacks spread across the Gulf. Country detail across the roster is on the Crisis Radar daily board.

South Sudan holds the highest composite on the board at 97.3. The National Elections Commission named funding and security as major obstacles to the 2026 elections on 19 July, the Red Cross evacuated further civilians from active conflict areas on 17 July, and a court in Juba concluded testimony against Machar's co-accused the same day. Border clashes at Kajo-Keji displaced 10,000 civilians (16 July), and Khartoum rejected Juba's inclusion of Abyei in its 2026 electoral constituencies.

In Israel, the Knesset dissolved on 17 July and elections are set for 27 October. Israeli strikes in Gaza killed nine Palestinians on 18 July and ten on 17 July, ministers announced a plan for new settlements in Gaza and the West Bank, and Hamas — which dissolved its Gaza government on 6 July — is preparing to transfer power to a UN-backed committee.

In Lebanon, the US renewed its "Do Not Travel" advisory on 18 July citing escalating tensions, while the Lebanese Army began deploying units into southern pilot zones under the guidelines agreed with Israel on 15 July; Germany's foreign minister proposed an EU force to replace UNIFIL (18 July, B2).

Watch list — 24h

#	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ (week)	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan	97.3	RED²	−1.4	Elections commission cites funding and security obstacles; Red Cross evacuates more civilians
2	Myanmar	93.9	RED²	−0.6	Over 500 feared dead in two shipwrecks; airstrikes in Rakhine State
3	Somalia	92.6	RED²	−3.7	US blocks continued UN support for the African Union mission
4	Venezuela	89.8	RED²	−8.1	Declassified CIA reporting alleges Maduro election-rigging; earthquake toll reaches 5,119
5	Syria	88.6	RED²	−3.4	Defence ministry announces integration of all military units; US issues urgent travel warnings
6	DR Congo	86.2	RED²	−4.1	M23 confirmed most lethal armed group in the east; UN sanctions armed-group leaders
7	Iran	85.1	RED²	−1.5	US and Iran trade attacks in open war; Hormuz shipping falls sharply
8	Mali	84.7	RED²	−4.6	Army convoy ambushed in Gao region with scores killed or captured
9	Palestinian Territories	84.2	RED²	−4.7	Nineteen killed in Israeli strikes over two days; Hamas dissolves Gaza government
10	Nigeria	82.8	RED²	+1.8	Petrol imports rise 207% in one month; opposition attacks economic policy

² Holds RED on individual indicator groups: South Sudan (Governance & Political Risk 100.0, Security Risk 100.0), Myanmar (Governance & Political Risk 100.0, Security Risk 100.0), Somalia (Governance & Political Risk 100.0, Security Risk 100.0), Venezuela (Governance & Political Risk 93.8), Syria (Security Risk 100.0), DR Congo (Security Risk 93.1), Iran (Operating Environment 89.8), Mali (Security Risk 95.4), Palestinian Territories (Operating Environment 87.1), Nigeria (Security Risk 88.8).

Largest deteriorations (week): Nigeria +1.8 · Israel +1.8 · Philippines +0.6. Largest improvements (week): Pakistan −9.2 · Turks and Caicos −9.0 · Taiwan −8.6 · Venezuela −8.1 · Cameroon −7.7 · Moldova −7.2.

Cross-cutting themes

US-Iran attacks harden into open war and close the Strait of Hormuz

The US and Iran traded direct attacks on 17 July, and by 18 July Washington had completed seven consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian territory. Iranian retaliation has spread regionally: a strike in Jordan killed two US troops on 18 July (A2), and Tehran suspended its memorandum of understanding with Washington on 19 July. The strait closure Iran announced on 13 July is biting — commercial shipping through Hormuz fell sharply that week (13 July, B2) and transits dropped further on 17 July.

Iraq: international oil firms halted operations on 18 July; the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced a $10 million reward for targeting Donald Trump (17 July); Washington set an end to US military operations in Iraq by 30 September.
Syria: US embassies issued urgent travel warnings on 18 July citing heightened regional tensions; Damascus reported thwarting a major arms and missile smuggling attempt destined for Hezbollah on 16 July.
Lebanon: the US renewed its "Do Not Travel" advisory on 18 July; the Israeli military reported strikes the same day even as the Lebanese Army deployed into southern pilot zones.

Israel dissolves the Knesset for October elections as Gaza strikes continue and Hamas hands over administration

The Knesset dissolved on 17 July, setting elections for 27 October (17 July, A2). Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ten Palestinians on 17 July and nine, including children, on 18 July (B-graded wire reporting), while ministers announced a plan for new settlements in Gaza and the West Bank on 18 July.

Palestinian Territories: Hamas dissolved its Gaza government on 6 July and is preparing to transfer power to a UN-backed committee; the Palestinian Authority's public debt reached 49 billion shekels by 14 July; the EU pledged further Gaza aid.
Settler violence continued in the West Bank, with a village raid in which the IDF allowed perpetrators to leave (17 July).

Sahel militaries claim heavy militant tolls while suffering a major ambush in Mali

Nigerien forces killed 19 militants in the Tillabéri region on 17 July, while Mali's army lost a convoy to an ambush in the Gao region on 18 July, with scores killed or captured — the most serious single military reverse of the week. A large fuel convoy reached Bamako the same day, easing shortages.

Niger: the US issued a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory on 9 July; a second session of AES-Russia consultations was held during the window.
Mali: the government amended its nationality law on 17 July to allow stripping citizenship for actions against national interests; the US reinforced its economic partnership the same day.
Chad: Canada updated its travel advisory citing security risks; OCHA published its July operational-presence report on 17 July.

Washington pulls back security commitments from Mogadishu to Baghdad

The US maintained its block on continued UN support for the African Union Mission in Somalia on 18 July, with UNSOS funding reported to be drying up the same day — pressure that lands as Mogadishu reported 25 Al-Shabaab militants killed and four surrendered in recent operations. In Iraq, Washington confirmed US military operations will end by 30 September even while Prime Minister Zaidi signed multi-billion-dollar deals with US firms (17 July).

Somalia: the AU mission's future is now openly questioned by observers; Somalia formally revived its maritime flag on 16 July.
Philippines: the counter-example — Manila received $80 million in US defence aid on 19 July with more expected under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

Country daily updates

Sub Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 97.3 RED, Δ −1.4. The National Elections Commission cited funding and security as major challenges for the 2026 elections on 19 July. The Red Cross evacuated further civilians from ongoing conflict on 17 July, and a bishop appealed for aid after border clashes at Kajo-Keji displaced 10,000 civilians (16 July). Northern Bahr el Ghazal opened an investigation into alleged torture by security operatives on 17 July, and a Juba court rejected a written defence for Machar's co-accused, concluding testimony. Khartoum rejected Juba's inclusion of Abyei in its 2026 electoral constituencies; Western embassies expressed concern over amendments to the peace agreement (19 July).

Somalia — 92.6 RED, Δ −3.7. The US maintained its stance against continued UN support for the African Union mission on 18 July, with US funding for the UN Support Office reported to be drying up the same day. Mogadishu reported 25 Al-Shabaab militants killed and four surrendered in recent operations (18 July). Somalia formally revived its maritime flag on 16 July, registering first vessels.

DR Congo — 86.2 RED, Δ −4.1. The Kivu Security Tracker confirmed M23 as the most lethal armed group in the east, responsible for 114 civilian deaths in June (report published 18 July). The UN Security Council sanctioned armed-group leaders on 17 July. An Ebola outbreak is disrupting healthcare and a US-backed minerals deal in the east (16 July). President Tshisekedi announced an inclusive national dialogue on 17 July; the opposition warned against constitutional changes and has called a protest for 22 July. The central bank cut its key rate to 12.5%.

Mali — 84.7 RED, Δ −4.6. An army convoy was ambushed in the Gao region on 18 July with scores killed or captured, the week's most serious military reverse on the roster. A large fuel convoy reached Bamako the same day, easing shortages. The government amended the nationality law on 17 July to permit stripping citizenship for actions against national interests, and ratified two infrastructure loan agreements; the US reinforced its strategic and economic partnership the same day.

Nigeria — 82.8 RED, Δ +1.8. Petrol imports rose 207% in one month (19 July), adding pressure on the naira, and importers announced depot price rises to ₦1,350 per litre from 17 July. Opposition parties attacked President Tinubu's economic record, with Peter Obi repeating his 2023 election claims. A court seized assets worth over $2 million from former central bank governor Emefiele on 18 July.

Ethiopia — 82.4 RED, Δ 0.0. Thousands joined the National Dialogue in Addis Ababa on 18 July, with political parties demanding full participation the same day. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned "enemy countries" in remarks during the window, and the Ombudsman was reported to lack authority to question Parliament over a media ban. Addis Ababa and Juba held bilateral discussions on 17 July. Reporting on sexual violence against women soldiers highlighted rising war fears (15 July, B2).

Chad — 82.2 RED, Δ −4.4. Chad hosted the African Water Forum, signing the N'Djamena Declaration for Water Security on 17 July. Canada updated its travel advisory citing security risks. OCHA published its July report on humanitarian partners' operational presence the same day.

Eritrea — 81.8 RED, Δ −2.9. Fuel prices have quadrupled in a deepening inflation crisis (14 July). The Global Connectivity Index ranked the country 214th globally for internet connectivity (7 July), a persistent infrastructure deficit that compounds operating costs.

Niger — 81.1 RED, Δ −3.7. Defence and security forces killed 19 militants in the Tillabéri region on 17 July. The US issued a Level 4 "Do Not Travel" advisory on 9 July. A second session of AES-Russia consultations took place during the window.

Cameroon — 77.0 RED, Δ −7.7. Deaths among suspects linked to gold-rush activity exceed official tolls (17 July), and a major tax-recovery operation is targeting the gold sector (16 July). Reconstruction of the Sonara refinery shifted to a public-private partnership model.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria — 88.6 RED, Δ −3.4. The Ministry of Defense announced the integration of all military units on 17 July, consolidating state control over security forces, a day after Damascus reported thwarting a major arms and missile smuggling attempt destined for Hezbollah. US embassies issued urgent travel warnings on 18 July citing regional tensions. ISIS activity continues: 61 attacks and 50 deaths since early 2026. The pound's exchange rate remains under pressure.

Iran — 85.1 RED, Δ −1.5. The US and Iran traded attacks on 17 July in a return to open war; the US completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on 18 July and Iran retaliated regionally, killing two US troops in Jordan. Tehran suspended its memorandum of understanding with Washington on 19 July. Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after the 13 July closure announcement, and transits dropped further on 17 July.

Palestinian Territories — 84.2 RED, Δ −4.7. Israeli strikes killed nine Palestinians, including children, on 18 July and ten on 17 July (wire-service and WAFA reporting). Settlers raided a West Bank village, with the IDF allowing them to leave. Hamas dissolved its Gaza government on 6 July ahead of a transfer to a UN-backed committee. Palestinian Authority public debt reached 49 billion shekels by 14 July; the EU pledged further Gaza aid.

Lebanon — 79.8 RED, Δ −2.5. The US renewed its "Do Not Travel" advisory on 18 July citing escalating tensions. The Lebanese Army began deploying units into southern pilot zones under guidelines agreed with Israel on 15 July, while the Israeli military reported strikes on 18 July. Germany's foreign minister proposed an EU force to replace UNIFIL (18 July, B2).

Iraq — 76.6 RED, Δ −2.5. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced a $10 million reward for targeting Donald Trump on 17 July. The same day Prime Minister Zaidi signed multi-billion-dollar economic agreements with US firms, and Washington confirmed US military operations will end by 30 September. International oil firms halted operations on 18 July as the Iran war spread across the Gulf.

Libya — 75.0 RED, Δ −4.5. Turkey and Haftar's command expanded military cooperation on 18 July. A new oil field discovery was announced on 17 July. The FAO reported 18% food-price inflation for May 2026.

Egypt — 62.6 AMBER, Δ −4.2. Parliament approved a cabinet reshuffle on 14 July, introducing 13 new ministers, and the Cabinet approved a set of economic and development decisions on 16 July. Urban inflation eased to 14.3%.

Israel — 47.7 AMBER, Δ +1.8. The Knesset dissolved on 17 July with elections set for 27 October. An Iranian strike in Jordan killed two US troops on 18 July. Ministers announced a plan for new settlements in Gaza and the West Bank the same day.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 89.8 RED, Δ −8.1. Declassified CIA reporting released on 17 July alleges Maduro election-rigging efforts active since 2012. The earthquake death toll rose to 5,119 the same day. June inflation accelerated to 13.8% monthly (544% annualised) and the bolívar devalued 15.6% against the dollar in July; Caracas accessed $346 million from the IMF on 18 July with CAF supporting a reconstruction fund. Acting President Rodríguez hardened her political line on 18 July as Saudi investment talks continued.

Guyana — 49.7 AMBER, Δ −2.7. CARICOM expressed concern on 14 July over attacks on Guyana Defence Force ranks originating from Venezuelan territory, after calling on 13 July for Venezuela to arrest perpetrators. A Venezuela-based group is suspected in a death-threat investigation targeting the CANU chief (17 July).

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 93.9 RED, Δ −0.6. Over 500 people are feared dead after two shipwrecks off the coast on 16 July. The military conducted airstrikes in Rakhine State on 17 July, heavy fighting erupted in Myawaddy, Karen State, on 19 July, and flooding worsened humanitarian conditions in Rakhine. An ASEAN envoy affirmed continued dialogue with all stakeholders (16 July), and Thailand's foreign minister said the opposing sides are open to dialogue (15 July).

Bangladesh — 78.3 RED, Δ +0.1. India confirmed on 17 July it is reviewing Dhaka's extradition request for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, having said on 14 July its stance was unchanged (B1). Large protests by minority leaders erupted in Dhaka on 18 July after the arrest of a Hindu man.

Pakistan — 73.8 RED, Δ −9.2. Security forces killed 24 militants in operations in Bannu and foiled a plot in Wana on 18 July; Operation Shaban continues in Balochistan with 129 militants reported killed since 5 July, and border raids near Afghanistan killed a further 24 on 17 July.

Philippines — 63.2 AMBER, Δ +0.6. President Marcos's trust rating fell to a record-low 34% on 19 July. The same day Manila received $80 million in US defence aid, with further assistance expected under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement.

Nepal — 59.8 AMBER, Δ −5.9. Kathmandu issued a travel alert on 18 July for monsoon landslide risks affecting ground transport. A government task force submitted constitutional amendment proposals on 17 July, and former ministers were convicted in a refugee scam.

Indonesia — 51.1 AMBER, Δ −5.5. President Prabowo announced on 17 July a halt to diesel imports by July 2026, after the country recorded its first trade deficit in six years in May. Inter-agency tensions persist around a corruption investigation.

Taiwan — 32.8 AMBER, Δ −8.6. A Central Union Oil executive was detained in a cooking-oil scandal on 19 July, prompting food-safety law amendments. The army conducted cross-region reinforcement drills on 17 July.

Europe

Ukraine — 74.4 RED, Δ −2.3. Russian attacks have halved electricity generation capacity since intensified strikes on energy infrastructure began on 10 July. Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region on 19 July; Ukraine struck Russian logistics centres and an oil depot in response.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 57.0 AMBER, Δ −5.0. The Port of Brčko completed its modernisation with EBRD and EU support on 7 July, and Sarajevo Airport acquired new handling equipment the same day.

Azerbaijan — 53.9 AMBER, Δ −6.1. Baku announced the "Power of Unity 2026" joint exercises with six nations on 17 July and the "Eternity-2026" drills with Georgia and Turkey on 16 July. The foreign-trade surplus rose nearly sixfold in the first half of 2026.

Georgia — 51.4 AMBER, Δ −3.5. Prime Minister Kobakhidze linked public sentiment to alleged "political terror" by the United National Movement on 18 July. Tbilisi signed broad cooperation agreements with Turkmenistan on 17 July.

Moldova — 49.4 AMBER, Δ −7.2. The European Parliament approved €120 million for Moldovan air defence on 15 July, following the EU's opening of a new accession negotiation on security and foreign policy on 14 July.

Armenia — 47.8 AMBER, Δ −0.4. The government approved ratification of the TRIPP strategic agreement with the US on 16 July (A2). The World Bank warned on 18 July of economic risks from Russian trade restrictions (A1); trade turnover with Russia fell 20.5% in January-May. The Prosecutor General moved to strip immunity from opposition MPs and Prime Minister Pashinyan filed lawsuits against opposition figures (13 July).