US-Iran direct exchange closes the Strait of Hormuz

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the overall dashboard, the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-06-14 · 35 countries · 0 events scored (24h) · 0 events reviewed (7d trajectory) · 72 change flags. The events surface was empty in both exports today; the snapshot half (briefing, change flags, PIR alignments) is intact, but dated event citations and the Top sources for follow-up reading section are omitted. Data-integrity caveat: the OSINT scraper did not run between 5 and 11 June, producing essentially zero events ingested for six days. Per-PIR event volume on today's rolling windows is around 29% below baseline (180 events per PIR group today against 254 on 1 June), which mechanically depresses triangulated scores and alignment states. Treat the indicator-state moves below as provisional pending re-scoring once volumes stabilise.

BLUF

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran has announced the closure after US forces struck Iranian air-defence and radar systems near the Strait; Tehran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases in the region, including a claimed strike on a US command centre in Jordan and attempts on commercial shipping. Kuwait reported intercepting 24 Iranian attack drones. The Iranian toman has weakened a further 4.77% against the dollar in a month, and the World Bank and the Bundesbank have lowered global and national growth forecasts citing the conflict. Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif claimed a "final agreed-upon" text for a US-Iran peace deal had been reached; the closure of the Strait says otherwise. The full dashboard carries the per-country picture.

Palestine is the highest-rated country on the board at composite 60.3 (Δ +4.7). The Israeli government has reportedly approved plans to finance 61 new West Bank settlements and over 2,000 new settlement homes; an Amnesty International report accuses Israel of making West Bank annexation official policy and conducting an "ethnic cleansing" campaign against Bedouin communities, and a UN inquiry implicates Israeli authorities in settler attacks shielded by security forces. Six countries — Canada, Australia and four European nations — have announced coordinated sanctions targeting settler-attack financing networks. Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated Israel controls over 60% of Gaza and aims for 70%; Cairo-mediated ceasefire talks continue against severe water scarcity and impending electricity-generator shutdowns in Gaza.

The Lebanon UK-interests indicator (Macro Conditions) is recorded today as having moved out of a sustained-crisis state, dropping from 67.0 to 50.5 in two weeks. The event picture says the opposite: the IDF has declared "operational control" over the Wadi Saluki area, signalled readiness for an offensive in Nabatieh, and Hezbollah has explicitly rejected a US-brokered ceasefire. Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport continues to suffer flight disruptions; thousands have reportedly fled Beirut's southern suburbs following Israeli strike threats. With event ingestion down 29% on the rolling window, the score move is almost certainly a data-pipeline artefact rather than a real improvement; the on-the-ground trajectory remains deterioration.

Five indicator-level crisis states are recorded as having unwound since the last Monday digest — Palestine's Governance & Political Risk, Operating Environment and Security Risk; Mali's Governance and Security Risk; Myanmar's Macro Conditions. These moves are not supported by the event prose. JNIM has just put a multi-million-euro bounty on Mali's president and killed eight on the Bamako-Kayes road; the Arakan Army is encircling Myanmar's western naval bases; the Israeli government has just approved 61 new West Bank settlements and is targeting 70% control of Gaza. With six days of essentially zero event ingestion between 5 and 11 June, the rolling-window event volume that drives PIR scoring is roughly 29% below baseline. The indicator-state improvements should be read as data-pipeline artefacts rather than real-world de-escalation; the underlying trajectory across the Gulf, southern Lebanon, the Horn of Africa and the Sahel is escalation, not improvement.

Watch list — 24h

No country meets the threshold for footnotes ¹ or ² today, but that result reflects the data-pipeline gap noted on the cycle line, not a real shift in country conditions. The highest single-indicator score on the board is South Sudan's Security Risk at 68.9; the next is Myanmar's Security Risk at 66.8 (which remains in sustained-crisis state). Both 1 June and 26 May saw multiple PIR scores above 70 against the same kind of event environment; today's absence of those scores is consistent with the 29% drop in event volume per PIR window.

Largest 24h composite deteriorations: South Sudan +4.8, Palestine +4.7, DR Congo +4.5, Somalia +4.3, Iraq +3.9, Niger +3.9, Eritrea +3.3, Egypt +2.6, Bosnia and Herzegovina +2.5, Ukraine +2.5. Taiwan posted the largest 24h shift on the board at +5.4 but remains GREEN at composite 28.5.

Largest 24h improvements: Venezuela -0.4, Chad -0.2, Nigeria -0.2, Syria -0.1, Mali 0.0. Composite improvements were small in absolute terms today; the meaningful improvements were at the PIR level.

Seven countries are now GREEN and have dropped from the country updates: Armenia (25.4), Azerbaijan (25.7), Republic of Korea (28.3), Moldova (28.5), Taiwan (28.5), Egypt (28.4), Turks and Caicos Islands (18.8). Georgia (30.0) flipped from GREEN back to AMBER today.

Cross-cutting themes

US-Iran direct exchange closes the Strait of Hormuz

US forces struck Iranian air-defence and radar systems near the Strait; Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on US bases including a claimed hit on a US command centre in Jordan, and attempts on commercial shipping. Tehran then announced the closure of the Strait. Kuwait reported intercepting 24 Iranian attack drones. The Iranian toman weakened a further 4.77% against the dollar in a month, the World Bank and the Bundesbank cut global and national growth forecasts on the conflict, and Brent crude has been highly volatile.

• Iraq (composite 39.6, Δ +3.9): The Foreign Minister warned that Iraq may be unable to pay public-sector salaries next month if the Strait closure persists. The oil-export agreement with Türkiye expires in less than two months. The central bank cut rates against inflation now at 4.3%, having printed 25 trillion dinars to address a liquidity shortage. The Deputy Oil Minister was arrested as part of an anti-corruption drive.
• Pakistan (composite 36.0, Δ +0.9): Prime Minister Sharif claimed a "final agreed-upon" text for a US-Iran peace deal has been reached. The military conducted "precise and calibrated" cross-border strikes on militant positions in Afghanistan, killing 26. PICSS reported a 27% surge in militant attacks in May; headline inflation hit 11.7%, a two-year high.
• Egypt (composite 28.4 GREEN, Δ +2.6): Cairo joined the US-backed International Stabilization Force for Gaza and is hosting indirect ceasefire talks; Foreign Minister Abdelatty condemned Iranian attacks on Gulf states while welcoming US de-escalation moves. Egypt cleared $6.1bn in arrears to international oil and gas companies and net international reserves reached $53bn.

Israeli ground push pivots to Nabatieh; West Bank settlement plan approved

The IDF declared "operational control" over Wadi Saluki, signalled readiness for an offensive into Nabatieh, and is reportedly demanding expanded operations into Beirut. Hezbollah has explicitly rejected the US-brokered ceasefire and rejoined direct confrontations with advancing Israeli troops. In parallel, the Israeli government reportedly approved plans to finance 61 new West Bank settlements and over 2,000 new homes, drawing coordinated sanctions from six countries against settler-attack financing networks.

• Israel (composite 44.7, Δ +1.4): The IDF reports it is prepared for several days of continued fighting and is establishing buffer zones in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. The Knesset passed the first reading of a parliament-dissolution bill, signalling early elections. Houthi rebels claimed missile strikes from Yemen and declared a "total ban" on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
• Lebanon (composite 49.9, Δ +1.8): Macro Conditions is recorded as having moved out of sustained-crisis state in the scoring; the event picture — IDF declaring operational control of Wadi Saluki, readying a Nabatieh offensive, damaged electricity and telecoms infrastructure across the south, thousands fleeing Beirut's southern suburbs — points the other way. Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport continues to face flight disruptions; the new Rene Mouawad airport at Qlayaat is now operational as a partial alternative.
• Palestine (composite 60.3, Δ +4.7): The Israeli PM has stated control over 60% of Gaza with the aim of reaching 70%. A UN inquiry implicates Israeli authorities in settler attacks shielded by security forces; the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains critical, with the UN warning of severe water scarcity and impending electricity-generator shutdowns. Three of four indicator groups are recorded as having returned from sustained-crisis state to confirmed deterioration in the scoring; given the data-pipeline gap and the West Bank settlement plan, the on-the-ground trajectory continues to deteriorate, not improve.

Horn of Africa: convergent political ruptures, famine signals and Ebola

Somalia's constitutional crisis broke into open urban fighting in Mogadishu; South Sudan's Jonglei conflict has tipped into near-famine and the SPLM-IO alleges an assassination plot against First Vice-President Machar; Ethiopia and Eritrea are publicly warning of imminent Tigray war; the eastern DRC Ebola outbreak has reached 676 cases and 136 deaths. The Strategic Outlook's "Horn arc" risk concentration is more pronounced this week than in either previous digest.

• Somalia (composite 51.3, Δ +4.3): The expiration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term and opposition rejection of parliamentary extensions has produced armed clashes in Mogadishu between government forces and opposition-aligned groups, with civilian displacement and disruptions to electrical supplies. Famine risk at IPC Phase 5 persists in the Bay Region. Puntland has warned against federal military recruitment in its territory.
• South Sudan (composite 58.4, Δ +4.8): The Jonglei conflict has produced widespread displacement and famine conditions, with children reportedly surviving on leaves and water lilies and food aid traded as de facto currency. The SPLM-IO alleges an assassination plot against First VP Machar; the Governor of Eastern Kapoeta County was killed. The US has linked election support to peace-deal implementation, which Juba rejects.
• Ethiopia (composite 44.8, Δ +2.1): The TPLF has announced reinstatement of its pre-war regional administration and drafted a proclamation mandating compulsory military mobilisation; Addis warned of TPLF preparations for major assaults on federal defence bases. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea and the Sudanese Armed Forces of backing insurgents. The IMF reached a staff-level agreement on a program review.
• Eritrea (composite 37.7, Δ +3.3): Tigrinya sources and Ethiopian officials both report preparations for renewed Tigray war; one Tigrinya channel called it "inevitable". President Afwerki is on an official visit to Egypt focused on bilateral relations and Red Sea security, with both governments asserting that littoral states hold exclusive responsibility for the Red Sea.
• DR Congo (composite 50.2, Δ +4.5): The US, UK, Belgium, Switzerland and Canada all updated travel guidance over the past 48 hours citing the expanding Ebola outbreak, crime and terrorism. The ADF killed 21 civilians in Beni territory; clashes continue between Wazalendo groups and M23/AFC in Masisi. Violent clashes broke out at an opposition rally in Kinshasa protesting proposed constitutional changes.

Sahel pressure intensifies as French and US forces step back

France's military withdrawal from Chad has begun; Niger has initiated planning for the US troop withdrawal; Mali's JNIM has placed a multi-million-euro bounty on transitional President Goïta and the government has banned motorcycle circulation outside major urban areas. The pattern of Western security-partner disengagement coinciding with intensified jihadist pressure now spans the entire Sahel arc.

• Mali (composite 49.0, Δ 0.0): Beyond the JNIM bounty on Goïta, a JNIM landmine attack on the Bamako-Kayes highway killed eight and injured 42; the government closed 39 forests and natural reserves as military zones. A US security alert advises against travel on the Bamako-Sikasso corridor. Two PIR-level crisis states (Governance, Security Risk) returned to confirmed deterioration.
• Niger (composite 37.7, Δ +3.9): The junta initiated planning for the US troop withdrawal. A new penal code criminalises same-sex relations; the government stripped an opponent of nationality and dissolved nine state organisations. Niger secured €250m from Afreximbank and reached a staff-level IMF agreement for a $33m disbursement; 49 reported deaths from thirst in the desert.
• Chad (composite 39.8, Δ -0.2): French military withdrawal has commenced. Doctors Without Borders reports 116 wounded treated in one month from cross-border drone strikes from Sudan; parliament extended the state of emergency in Lac Province. Twenty-five opposition parties rejected partial legislative and senatorial elections; food insecurity has reached crisis levels in eastern and Lake Chad provinces.
• Cameroon (composite 46.8, Δ +2.3): Renewed Anglophone violence killed two soldiers in Kumba and two gendarmes in Belo. Kribi and Dibamba power plants shut down over tax and payment disputes, causing widespread outages on the Southern Interconnected Grid. The US military is preparing to re-establish its presence at the Salak base in the Far North.

Country daily updates

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 58.4 AMBER, Δ +4.8. The Jonglei conflict has driven widespread displacement and near-famine conditions, with children reportedly surviving on leaves and water lilies; food aid packages are increasingly traded as de facto currency and Juba faces electricity rationing on fuel shortages. The SPLM-IO has alleged an assassination plot against First Vice-President Riek Machar; the Governor of Eastern Kapoeta County was killed in localised insecurity; a humanitarian organisation suspended staff movements in Yei. The US has linked election support to political dialogue and peace-agreement implementation, which Juba rejects while calling for sanctions to be lifted.

Somalia — 51.3 AMBER, Δ +4.3. The expiration of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's term and opposition rejection of parliamentary extensions has fuelled intense armed clashes in Mogadishu between federal government forces and opposition-aligned groups, with civilian displacement and disruptions to electrical supplies. Government investigations against former leaders for alleged involvement in the clashes have deepened the divisions. Somali forces continued counter-terrorism operations and seized bomb-making chemicals; the President condemned Israel's recognition of Somaliland; Puntland has warned against federal military recruitment in its territory. A credible risk of IPC Phase 5 famine persists in the Bay Region on erratic rains and high food prices.

DR Congo — 50.2 AMBER, Δ +4.5. Five Western governments — the US, UK, Belgium, Switzerland and Canada — updated travel guidance over 48 hours, citing the expanding Ebola outbreak alongside crime, civil unrest, terrorism and kidnapping. The eastern Ebola caseload reached 676 with 136 deaths; weak contact tracing and insecurity are hampering response and populations are reportedly avoiding public hospitals. The ADF killed 21 civilians in a double attack in Beni territory; Wazalendo-M23 clashes continue in Masisi; the US has sanctioned commanders from the FDLR and M23. Violent clashes erupted during an opposition rally in Kinshasa against proposed constitutional changes; the revised 2026 budget is $21.9bn, down 7.4%, and the Senate approved the creation of a stock market.

Mali — 49.0 AMBER, Δ 0.0. JNIM has announced a multi-million-euro bounty for information leading to the whereabouts of transitional President Goïta. A JNIM landmine attack on the Bamako-Kayes highway killed eight and injured 42. The government has offered a substantial reward for the capture of JNIM and Front de Libération de l'Azawad leaders, closed 39 forests and natural reserves as military zones, and banned motorcycle circulation outside major urban areas. A US security alert advises against travel on the economically vital Bamako-Sikasso corridor. The Governance & Political Risk and Security Risk indicator groups are recorded as having moved out of sustained-crisis state in the scoring; on this event picture, that should be read as a data-pipeline artefact rather than a real improvement.

Cameroon — 46.8 AMBER, Δ +2.3. Renewed Anglophone violence produced clashes between separatist fighters and government forces with civilian and military casualties, including an ambush killing two soldiers in Kumba and an assault on the Belo Gendarmerie Brigade claiming two gendarmes. Kribi and Dibamba power plants suspended operations over tax disputes and payment delays, causing widespread outages on the Southern Interconnected Grid. Succession speculation intensified, with reports of emerging rivalries within the Biya family and discussion of a Vice-President role; opposition figures publicly claim the President is no longer actively governing. The Nigerian Army reportedly repelled an incursion by Cameroonian troops in a border community, linked to levy collections. The US military is preparing to re-establish presence at the Salak base in the Far North.

Ethiopia — 44.8 AMBER, Δ +2.1. Senior Ethiopian officials including the intelligence chief have accused the TPLF of preparing a major military offensive; the TPLF announced reinstatement of its pre-war regional administration and leadership, directly challenging the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, and reportedly drafted a proclamation mandating compulsory military mobilisation. The TPLF issued an "Aid-Memoire" claiming the agreement has collapsed and seeking diplomatic mediation. Ethiopia has accused Eritrea and the Sudanese Armed Forces of backing insurgents. The IMF reached a staff-level agreement on a program review; the National Bank of Ethiopia now permits foreign investors to import their own fuel.

Nigeria — 40.6 AMBER, Δ -0.2. US and Nigerian forces reportedly killed over 200 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters in the northeast; Nigerian troops rescued 360 abductees in Borno State. President Tinubu stated security forces have neutralised over 13,000 terrorists in the past year and issued a warning to bandits and kidnappers, while expressing concern over recent schoolchildren abductions and Northern Elders' calls for a national security emergency. The National Assembly is set to pass a state police bill this week. The capital market adopted a T+1 settlement cycle; foreign telecom investment fell sharply in Q1 2026.

Chad — 39.8 AMBER, Δ -0.2. France's military withdrawal has commenced following Chad's termination of the defence cooperation agreement. Doctors Without Borders reports 116 wounded treated in one month from cross-border drone strikes, indicating Sudanese conflict spillover. Parliament extended the state of emergency in Lac Province and condemned intercommunal violence in Mayo-Kebbi Est. Twenty-five opposition parties rejected partial legislative and senatorial elections; seven others are contesting provisional results. Food insecurity has reached crisis levels in eastern and Lake Chad provinces. Fuel prices were reduced and economic cooperation with France and Algeria expanded.

Eritrea — 37.7 AMBER, Δ +3.3. Warnings of renewed Tigray conflict have intensified, with Tigrinya sources and Ethiopian officials both reporting preparations for possible military action; a Tigrinya channel called an Eritrea-led war involving the US and TPLF "inevitable" while Addis warned of TPLF preparations for major federal-base assaults. President Afwerki is on an official visit to Egypt focused on bilateral relations and Red Sea security; both governments assert that littoral states hold exclusive responsibility for the Red Sea. Egypt also reportedly organised talks involving Eritrea, the Tigray Defense Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces regarding the Sudan conflict. Asmara faces an acute water shortage reportedly exacerbated by fuel-supply issues following the US-Iran conflict.

Niger — 37.7 AMBER, Δ +3.9. The transitional government has initiated planning for the withdrawal of US troops. A new penal code criminalises same-sex relations with severe penalties. The government stripped an opponent of nationality and dissolved nine state organisations, indicating a broader Sahelian junta crackdown on civic space. Niger secured €250m in structured financing from Afreximbank and reached a staff-level IMF agreement for a $33m disbursement; President Tiani visited Türkiye, signalling partner diversification. Forty-nine deaths from thirst in the desert were reported; food consumption deficits continue in conflict zones.

Middle East and North Africa

Palestine — 60.3 AMBER (Macro Conditions remains in sustained crisis at score 64.5; the other three indicator groups are recorded today as having returned to confirmed deterioration, but the event picture below does not support that move and it should be treated as a scoring artefact), Δ +4.7. The Israeli government reportedly approved plans to finance 61 new West Bank settlements and over 2,000 new settlement homes. An Amnesty International report accuses Israel of making West Bank annexation official policy and conducting an "ethnic cleansing" campaign against Bedouin communities; a UN inquiry implicates Israeli authorities in settler attacks shielded by security forces. Canada, Australia and four European nations announced coordinated sanctions targeting settler-attack financing networks. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated Israel controls over 60% of Gaza and aims for 70%; indirect ceasefire talks in Cairo continue amid divisions among Palestinian factions. The Gaza humanitarian situation remains critical with severe water scarcity and impending electricity-generator shutdowns.

Iran — 53.6 AMBER, Δ +0.7. US forces conducted multiple strikes on Iranian air-defence and radar systems near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases, including a claimed strike on a US command centre in Jordan and attempts on commercial shipping. Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit, with direct implications for the operating environment and macro conditions globally. Kuwait reported intercepting 24 Iranian attack drones. The toman weakened a further 4.77% against the dollar over a month; Iran is projected to face one of the highest global inflation rates in 2026. The World Bank and the Bundesbank have lowered global and national growth forecasts citing the conflict; Brent crude has been volatile. Diplomatic signals on a potential peace deal remain mixed.

Lebanon — 49.9 AMBER (Macro Conditions is recorded today as having returned from sustained-crisis state to confirmed deterioration at score 50.5; on the event picture below this is more likely a data-pipeline artefact than a real recovery), Δ +1.8. The IDF declared "operational control" over the Wadi Saluki area and indicated readiness for an offensive in Nabatieh, a Hezbollah stronghold; right-wing ministers have demanded expanded ground operations into Beirut. Continued Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon have produced civilian and military casualties including Lebanese army personnel and damaged the electricity grid and telecommunications networks. Hezbollah has explicitly rejected the US-brokered ceasefire that the Lebanese Cabinet discussed enforcing, calling negotiations "absurd". The UN Security Council convened on the situation. Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport continues to face flight disruptions; the new Rene Mouawad airport at Qlayaat is now open as a partial alternative. Thousands have reportedly fled Beirut's southern suburbs.

Israel — 44.7 AMBER, Δ +1.4. Direct missile exchanges between Israel and Iran have escalated significantly with both sides reporting strikes and interceptions; the IDF indicated readiness for several days of continued fighting and is preparing operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, demanding expanded operations into Beirut. The Knesset passed the first reading of a parliament-dissolution bill, signalling early elections. Israel is expanding control in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, establishing security buffer zones, alongside accelerated settlement expansion in the West Bank. Houthi rebels claimed missile strikes from Yemen and declared a "total ban" on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea.

Iraq — 39.6 AMBER, Δ +3.9. Several armed factions including Kataeb al-Imam Ali and Asaib Ahl al-Haq announced intentions to disengage from the PMF and place weapons under state authority; Muqtada al-Sadr and Qais al-Khazali have signalled support for integration. Prime Minister al-Zaidi is due in Washington in July for a bilateral reset. The Foreign Minister warned that Iraq may be unable to pay public-sector salaries next month if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed; the agreement for oil exports through Türkiye expires in less than two months. The central bank cut rates against inflation at 4.3%, having printed 25 trillion dinars to address a liquidity shortage. The Deputy Oil Minister was arrested in an anti-corruption drive. The international coalition's military presence will conclude by September 2026.

Syria — 38.6 AMBER, Δ -0.1. The Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces have reportedly agreed an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire including provisions for integration, a significant de-escalation signal. ReliefWeb reports persistent IPC Phase 3 crisis outcomes in IDP-hosting areas. Operating-environment indicators are improving: Grimaldi Lines resumed shipping at Latakia Port after a seven-year hiatus, with over 2 million tons of cargo handled in the first five months of 2026; Damascus International Airport recorded a significant increase in passenger and flight numbers in May. Security forces arrested 235 ISIS operatives over three months, foiling seven plots. Israeli forces continue abducting residents and seizing land in Quneitra, and infiltrated Ma'ariya village in Daraa.

Libya — 31.7 AMBER, Δ +0.1. Reports emerged of hundreds of Iraqi Kurds held captive by militia, facing threats of organ removal. Forces affiliated with Khalifa Haftar detained a Gaza aid convoy in Sirte; Amnesty International is calling for the release of 10 humanitarian activists. Renewed clashes erupted in southern Tripoli between GNA forces and Haftar militias. The Central Bank of Libya launched a $3.5bn foreign currency sale programme while warning of a potential public-sector salary funding shortfall by year-end; oil export revenues rose in May. The Tripoli-based government suspended its visa-on-arrival system for review. The African Union Peace and Security Council convened on Libya, noting stalled political transition.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 53.8 AMBER (Security Risk remains in sustained crisis at score 66.8), Δ +0.8. The military regime has reportedly conducted at least nine massacres killing over 100 civilians in Magwe Region since April, with widespread home destruction. The Arakan Army has significantly escalated its offensive in Rakhine State, encircling and intensifying assaults on military naval bases including near Sittwe — a notable expansion into maritime assets. An explosion at a Ta'ang National Liberation Army base reportedly killed 43. Min Aung Hlaing's upcoming state visit to China coincides with the 76th anniversary of bilateral ties, signalling continued Beijing engagement. The Macro Conditions indicator group is recorded as having moved out of sustained-crisis state; given the data-pipeline gap and the continuing offensives, the on-the-ground deterioration in macro conditions is unlikely to have reversed.

Philippines — 44.8 AMBER, Δ +1.5. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Mindanao, killing 55, injuring over 1,100 and causing widespread infrastructure damage; a state of calamity has been declared in Sarangani and General Santos International Airport operations are limited to humanitarian and government flights. Foreign governments issued travel warnings for Mindanao. The Senate is engulfed in a leadership dispute and impeachment preparations; the Armed Forces publicly affirmed neutrality and denied destabilisation-plot rumours. China sanctioned Defence Secretary Teodoro and his family citing "irresponsible remarks"; Manila protested China's deployment of a floating structure near a disputed shoal. The World Bank cut the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.7% citing the Middle East conflict; inflation eased to 6.8% in May.

Bangladesh — 43.1 AMBER, Δ +2.2. HRSS reports 31 deaths from mob violence and five from political violence in May; the interim government extended the armed forces' judicial powers by two months. GDP has surpassed $500bn with per capita income at $3,020; May point-to-point inflation rose to a 16-month high of 9.42% on food prices and fuel prices were raised for the second time in six weeks. The largest-ever national budget for FY2026-27 targets 6.5% GDP growth. Border concerns include new threats from Myanmar's Arakan Army involving abductions and killings of Bangladeshis, and BGB deployments against Indian "push-in" attempts.

Pakistan — 36.0 AMBER, Δ +0.9. A reported 27% surge in militant attacks in May (PICSS). Pakistan conducted "precise and calibrated" cross-border strikes along the Afghan border, killing 26 militants; Islamabad has urged the UN Security Council to address Afghan-territory militancy and increased the defence budget by 17.6% for FY2026-27. Headline inflation reached 11.7% year-on-year in May, a two-year high; per capita consumption of essential food items declined. Prime Minister Sharif confirmed a "final agreed-upon" text for a US-Iran peace deal.

Indonesia — 34.7 AMBER, Δ +2.4. The rupiah depreciated to a record low against the US dollar, breaching Rp18,000 to become Asia's worst-performing currency; Bank Indonesia conducted an emergency 25bp hike to 5.50% alongside a new regulation requiring natural-resource export proceeds to enter the domestic financial system. Parliament passed legislation expanding BI's mandate to include economic growth and empowering lawmakers to evaluate the central bank; further legislation permits active-duty police officers to serve in civilian government ministries without resigning. Pertamina raised Pertamax fuel prices by 32%, triggering Jakarta student protests. An ammunition disposal incident in West Java killed 13, including four military officers.

Nepal — 33.5 AMBER, Δ +0.9. The Central Security Committee convened a high-level meeting chaired by the Home Minister. Parliament resumed budget debates after a deadlock; the government is proceeding with summary retirement of approximately 10,000 civil servants and the Supreme Court declined to halt the dissolution of civil-service trade unions. The CIAA filed a corruption case against the Birgunj mayor and six others. Consumer price inflation rose to 5.04% in mid-May, a 16-month high; a severe bitumen shortage has halted major road projects.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 43.4 AMBER, Δ -0.4. A joint US-Venezuela operation killed Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, leader of the transnational gang Tren de Aragua. Venezuelan forces deployed troops against illegal miners in Bolívar state, with reported clashes. The US Treasury updated several general licenses to encourage investment, and Venezuela granted Shell a licence for the Loran gas field; the National Assembly advanced reforms to open the electricity sector to private investment and is discussing Hydrocarbons Law changes. Venezuelan oil exports reached a seven-year high in May, with the EIA projecting a return to pre-blockade output. Monthly inflation for May eased to 6.3%, a 19-month low. Over 28,000 police officers were dismissed and prosecuted for corruption; 15 military political prisoners were released, attributed by María Corina Machado to external pressure.

Guyana — 32.0 AMBER, Δ +1.5. Guyana has bolstered border security and deployed additional assets along its western frontier following recent attacks, with continued high-level diplomatic engagement from the US reaffirming sovereignty. The ICJ is deliberating on the merits of the Essequibo dispute with a final ruling expected by November 2026. The government reportedly still lacks control over the US$1bn oil clean-up fund, with oil companies retaining oversight; ExxonMobil continues to dispute US$214m in audit findings. The National Assembly has reconvened on economic and legal bills.

Europe

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 35.4 AMBER, Δ +2.5. The Peace Implementation Council's Steering Board failed to agree on a successor for High Representative Christian Schmidt, prompting a US warning that it may reconsider its role; the US is reportedly considering new sanctions against Milorad Dodik. The BiH Presidency failed to adopt the 2026 state budget. The European Council President warned of substantial lost and at-risk funding due to slow reforms; Republika Srpska confirmed continued partnership with Gazprom on gas infrastructure. Inflation continues to accelerate on transportation and utilities; investigations into organised crime reveal thousands of suspects.

Ukraine — 35.0 AMBER, Δ +2.5. Ukraine reports reclaiming over 600 square kilometres since early 2026, with a net territorial gain in May; long-range strikes beyond 50km from the front doubled in May, targeting Russian logistics including in Moscow and St Petersburg. The General Staff reported nearly 2,000 clashes in the last week of May. The EU has officially confirmed accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova will commence on 15 June. Parliament approved a $34.7bn increase to the 2026 defence budget; Ukraine plans to seek an additional $20bn in military aid from allies. A drone explosion in a Romanian port raised spillover concerns. The Governance & Political Risk and Macro Conditions indicator groups both sit in deviation-positive states; only Operating Environment and Security Risk remain AMBER.

Georgia — 30.0 AMBER (flipped from GREEN today), Δ +1.9. MEPs have warned of a critical European Parliament report and potential sanctions over "democratic backsliding"; recent Brussels talks were described as "fruitless" and Tbilisi accused the EU of "unprecedented pressure". Russia is deepening economic integration with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, including infrastructure projects, and the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria issued a joint security declaration. Prime Minister Kobakhidze announced a "comprehensive strategic partnership" with China. Protests demanding political change continue, now at 560 consecutive days.