US-Iran peace deal signed, immediately tested

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the overall dashboard, the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-06-22 · 35 countries · 0 events scored (24h) · 0 events reviewed (7d trajectory) · 66 change flags. The events surface was empty in both exports today (now five Mondays running — a known export-layer issue separate from ingestion); the snapshot half (briefing, change flags, PIR alignments) is intact. Event ingestion has been at full volume since 12 June, so the rolling windows driving today's scoring no longer carry the 5–11 June gap that distorted last week's digest; the indicator-state moves below should be taken as reliable.

BLUF

The United States and Iran have signed an interim peace agreement — the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" mediated by Pakistan — that ends hostilities and lifts the US naval blockade, with the Supreme Leader's approval despite initial reservations. Within 24 hours of signing the deal is being tested: explosions have been reported across Iranian locations in a second consecutive day of US-Iran strikes; the Iranian Foreign Ministry and IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again citing truce violations; CENTCOM publicly disputed the claim and stated the Strait remains open. A US airstrike at the Shalamcheh border crossing into Iraq caused casualties. Iran's economy is sustaining the damage — petrochemical and steel production sharply down, central-bank inflation near 54%, food staples tripled in price. The full dashboard carries the per-country picture.

Palestine remains the highest-rated country on the board at composite 62.8 (Δ −1.4). Over 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the October ceasefire; the Gaza Government Media Office cites 3,269 alleged ceasefire violations. Israeli forces expanded control in northern Gaza and conducted strikes that killed at least two in Nuseirat; the UN warns that electricity generators face an imminent halt for lack of spare parts and oils. Elements of an international stability force have arrived in Israel for potential Gaza deployment; Hamas has reportedly pledged to hand over Gaza administration to a national committee in continuing Cairo talks. Two of Palestine's four indicator groups (Security Risk and Macro Conditions) remain in sustained-crisis state.

Israel has launched airstrikes deep within Iran in retaliation for earlier missile attacks. Tensions on the Lebanon border intensified in parallel: Hezbollah fired a barrage of 176 projectiles at Israeli positions; an IDF soldier was killed and 13 injured in a Hezbollah attack; an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Hezbollah operatives. The total Lebanese casualty count since March is now above 4,100 killed and 12,000 injured. The IDF reports it is preparing for several days of continued fighting; Prime Minister Netanyahu's rhetoric has shifted to "step-by-step annexation" of Gaza.

The Sahel produced two notable security events. JNIM has placed a €2 million bounty on Mali's transitional President Goïta, and coordinated JNIM-FLA attacks struck seven major population centres including Kati, Mopti, Gao and Kidal — described as Mali's most severe security test in 14 years. Air France has announced the permanent closure of its Bamako representation by 30 June. Separately, a deadly attack on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey killed at least 11 Nigerien soldiers and two civilians; 22 assailants were reportedly neutralised.

Watch list — 24h

² Holds RED on individual indicator groups: Myanmar (Security Risk, score 72.4).

No country has all four indicator groups in sustained-crisis state today. Palestine carries two such groups (Security Risk 65.2; Macro Conditions 68.7); South Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar each carry one. The previous Monday's footnote ¹ no longer applies to any country, and only Myanmar reaches the score-above-70 threshold.

Largest 24h composite deteriorations: Syria +2.5, Ukraine +1.2, Libya +0.8, Venezuela +0.7, Lebanon +0.5, Iraq +0.3, Indonesia +0.3, Armenia +0.3, Nigeria +0.2.

Largest 24h improvements: Somalia -1.9, Egypt -1.8, Taiwan -1.8, Bangladesh -1.7, DR Congo -1.5, Palestine -1.4, South Sudan -1.4, Philippines -1.3, Cameroon -1.0, Bosnia and Herzegovina -1.0, Moldova -1.0.

Five countries are GREEN today and drop from the country updates: Azerbaijan (29.6), Egypt (26.2), Taiwan (25.7), Turks and Caicos (22.8), Moldova (22.0). Armenia (32.5) flipped from GREEN back to AMBER over the past week.

Cross-cutting themes

US-Iran peace deal signed, immediately tested

The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran was signed via electronic exchange after mediation by Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif and Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir. The deal ends hostilities, lifts the US naval blockade and contains technical talks held in Switzerland. Within 24 hours of signing: a second consecutive day of US-Iran strikes was reported across Iranian locations; the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again, citing truce violations; CENTCOM disputed the claim; Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes deep within Iran. Iran's central bank reports nearly 54% inflation, with overall prices 77% higher year-on-year and food staples tripled.

• Iraq (composite 46.8, Δ +0.3): A US airstrike at the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran produced casualties and raised regional concerns. Prime Minister al-Zaidi has formed a committee to disengage the PMF and bring all weapons under state authority, alongside a major reshuffle of senior security and military leadership. Several armed factions including Kataeb al-Imam Ali and Asaib Ahl al-Haq have announced intentions to integrate. ISIS attacks (agricultural arson, ambushes) continue in Nineveh, Kirkuk and Diyala.
• Pakistan (composite 38.8, Δ 0.0): Confirmed as mediator on the deal; Prime Minister Sharif and Field Marshal Munir were directly involved. The UN Ambassador warned the Security Council of an "alarming rise" in militant threats from Afghanistan; Islamabad and Kabul exchanged claims of cross-border strikes; major border crossings remain closed. Two roadside bombings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed at least seven. Inflation projected at a two-year high in June.
• Egypt (composite 26.2 GREEN, Δ −1.8): Cairo welcomed the agreement and hosted regional foreign ministers including Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye; mediators for the US-Iran conflict met in Cairo. Annual urban inflation decelerated to 14.6%. Egypt's Security Risk indicator moved from confirmed deterioration to deviates-positive-strong on the back of the regional de-escalation.
• Israel (composite 44.7, Δ −0.2): Conducted retaliatory strikes deep in Iran following earlier missile attacks; an emerging US-Iran agreement has been met with skepticism in Israel; the security cabinet was convened.

Lebanon-Israel front intensifies despite ceasefire; Gaza ceasefire violations mount

Hezbollah launched a barrage of 176 projectiles at Israeli positions; Israeli strikes killed a Lebanese army soldier; total Lebanese casualties since March have passed 4,100 killed and 12,000 injured. An IDF soldier was killed and 13 injured in a Hezbollah ambush; an Israeli strike in Beirut killed Hezbollah operatives. The Israeli Ambassador to the US alleges over 100 Hezbollah ceasefire violations. The US has announced new rounds of Israel-Lebanon talks and added an emergency session on Israel-Hezbollah to US-Iran nuclear talks. Lebanon's Macro Conditions indicator (score 64.3) remains in confirmed deterioration; Iran has reportedly conditioned progress in Switzerland on a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon.

• Palestine (composite 62.8, Δ −1.4): Over 1,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza since the October ceasefire; the Gaza Media Office cites 3,269 alleged ceasefire violations. Israeli forces expanded control in northern Gaza and conducted strikes killing two in Nuseirat. Elements of an international stability force have arrived in Israel; Hamas has pledged to hand over Gaza administration to a national committee. President Abbas amended the General Elections Law, increasing Legislative Council membership and lowering the electoral threshold. The West Bank economy is reportedly nearing collapse from Israeli restrictions.

Sahel under sustained jihadist pressure; capital-city attacks

The state-failure dynamics in the Sahel deepened on two fronts inside 48 hours. JNIM placed a €2 million bounty on Mali's transitional President Goïta and a JNIM-FLA coalition struck seven major population centres including Kati, Mopti, Gao and Kidal. Air France announced the permanent closure of its Bamako representation by 30 June. In Niger, a deadly attack on Diori Hamani International Airport killed at least 11 soldiers and two civilians, with 22 assailants reportedly neutralised — the first such direct strike on the capital's airport.

• Mali (composite 55.5, Δ +0.1): The US Embassy maintained "Do Not Travel"; Germany urged citizens to leave. A Malian court sentenced a French embassy official to 20 years for undermining state security. The army claims to have neutralised around 30 fighters in the Diéma sector; AES foreign ministers met to coordinate regional diplomacy.
• Niger (composite 51.5, Δ −0.7): The US Embassy issued a security alert; Canada reiterated "Avoid All Travel". Niger and Benin reaffirmed a commitment to reopening their shared border. The IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the ninth review of the country's economic programme ($33m disbursement). The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline project advanced with Nigeria and Algeria.
• Cameroon (composite 46.4, Δ −1.0): ISWAP expanded into Darak, a strategic Far North border town. Northwest insecurity continued with five Catholic clerics and four civilians kidnapped in Bambui and a Belo ambush killing two soldiers. A defence agreement was signed with Nigeria; the US is finalising plans to redeploy troops to Maroua for ISR support.
• Chad (composite 52.5, Δ +0.1): Over 400,000 Chadian nationals have returned from Sudan since the war began. Parliament extended the Lac Province state of emergency. Farmer-herder violence continues; the army clashed with armed traffickers in the Tibesti region. The World Bank approved a $160m water-security grant.

Federal fragmentation and electoral ruptures across the African Great Lakes and Horn

Somalia split further today: Puntland declared it would act independently until a "consensus-based government" is formed; Somaliland established diplomatic ties with Israel including an embassy opening and a strategic deal, condemned by Mogadishu as undermining federal unity. DRC's Senate adopted a bill on the organisation of referendums that critics fear will enable a third Tshisekedi term — an opposition sit-in in Kinshasa was reportedly met with force, killing two and injuring over 500, and a national march has been called for 8 July. The TPLF-federal stand-off in Ethiopia deepened with reports of mandatory military conscription preparations and a drone strike near the Eritrean border killing Tigray Army personnel.

• Somalia (composite 52.1, Δ −1.9): Renewed clashes between government and opposition militias in Mogadishu displaced civilians; deadly clan fighting in Jalalaqsi, Hirshabelle, produced casualties. The Federal Government condemned Somaliland's Israel arrangement; Somaliland denied a military presence but confirmed training cooperation.
• DR Congo (composite 54.3, Δ −1.5): The Coalition Article 64 has called a national march for 8 July demanding the President's resignation. FARDC, Burundian forces and Wazalendo fighters launched an offensive against AFC-M23-allied Twirwaneho in Minembwe-Centre, South Kivu. Human Rights Watch continues to document M23 forced recruitment, summary executions and allegations of Rwandan army support. Tshisekedi has reportedly offered mineral access to the US and EU in exchange for security support against Rwanda.
• Ethiopia (composite 53.6, Δ −0.6): Tigray authorities are preparing mandatory military conscription; a reported drone strike near the Eritrean border killed Tigray Army personnel. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won 438 of 501 contested seats in the general election. Canada updated its travel advisory citing armed conflict and civil unrest; the US imposed visa restrictions on "hardline" TPLF members.
• South Sudan (composite 59.0, Δ −1.4): Al Jazeera reports of widespread sexual violence; a South Sudanese journalist was reportedly kidnapped and extradited from Egypt to Juba; five contractors were killed in Morobo County. An African Union envoy arrived in Juba; IGAD reaffirmed support for the peace agreement and 2026 elections. President Kiir conducted a cabinet reshuffle moving a close ally from a key justice portfolio.

Country daily updates

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 59.0 AMBER, Δ -1.4. Al Jazeera detailed widespread sexual violence, underscoring severe security and humanitarian challenges. A South Sudanese journalist was reportedly kidnapped and extradited from Egypt to Juba, raising press-freedom concerns. Five contractors were killed in Morobo County; localised insecurity persists. An African Union envoy arrived in Juba to advance the stalled peace process; IGAD reaffirmed support for the peace agreement and 2026 elections. President Kiir conducted a cabinet reshuffle, moving a close ally from a key justice portfolio.

Mali — 55.5 AMBER, Δ +0.1. JNIM announced a €2 million bounty for information leading to President Goïta's whereabouts; coordinated JNIM-FLA attacks struck seven major population centres including Kati, Mopti, Gao and Kidal — described as the country's most severe test in 14 years. The US Embassy in Bamako maintained "Do Not Travel" and Germany updated its advisory urging citizens to leave; Air France announced the permanent closure of its Bamako representation by 30 June. A Malian court sentenced a French embassy official to 20 years for undermining state security. The army reported neutralising approximately 30 fighters in the Diéma sector; AES foreign ministers met to coordinate diplomacy.

DR Congo — 54.3 AMBER, Δ -1.5. The Senate adopted a bill on the organisation of referendums, which critics fear could enable a third Tshisekedi term. An opposition sit-in in Kinshasa was reportedly met with force, killing two and injuring over 500; Coalition Article 64 has called a national march for 8 July demanding the President's resignation; CENCO has warned of a potential "Republican Pact Rupture". FARDC, Burundian forces and Wazalendo fighters launched an offensive against AFC-M23-allied Twirwaneho in Minembwe-Centre, South Kivu, with both sides reporting advances and setbacks. Human Rights Watch documented M23 forced recruitment and summary executions; allegations of Rwandan army support persist. Tshisekedi has reportedly offered mineral access to the US and EU in exchange for security support to deter Rwanda. Clashes have also resumed in Masisi.

Ethiopia — 53.6 AMBER, Δ -0.6. Tigray authorities are reportedly preparing mandatory military conscription; a reported drone strike near the Eritrean border killed Tigray Army personnel. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won 438 of 501 contested seats in the general election. Canada updated its travel advisory citing civil unrest and armed conflict; the US imposed visa restrictions on "hardline" TPLF members. The National Bank of Ethiopia postponed a USD 100m foreign exchange auction over technical issues, although a separate auction of the same size resumed.

Chad — 52.5 AMBER, Δ +0.1. Over 400,000 Chadian nationals have returned from Sudan since the conflict began, placing significant strain on resources and infrastructure. Persistent farmer-herder violence has produced fatalities; the army continues to clash with armed traffickers in the Tibesti region. Parliament extended the state of emergency in Lac Province. High inflation continues to weigh on N'Djamena households despite reported macro growth; opposition parties have rejected recent partial elections. The World Bank approved a $160 million grant for water security.

Somalia — 52.1 AMBER, Δ -1.9. Puntland declared it would act independently until a "consensus-based government" is formed and warned against federal military recruitment within its territory. Jubbaland accused the Federal Government of destabilising the country. Somaliland established diplomatic ties with Israel, opening an embassy and signing a strategic deal; the Federal Government condemned the move; Somaliland denied a military presence but confirmed training cooperation. Renewed clashes between government troops and opposition militias in Mogadishu forced civilian displacement and property damage; deadly clan fighting erupted in Jalalaqsi, Hirshabelle.

Niger — 51.5 AMBER, Δ -0.7. A deadly attack on Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey killed at least 11 soldiers and two civilians; 22 assailants were reportedly neutralised. The US Embassy issued a security alert; Canada reiterated "Avoid All Travel". The WFP reports sustained armed-group pressure in border regions. The IMF and Niger concluded a staff-level agreement on the ninth review of the country's economic programme, expected to release a $33m disbursement. Niger and Benin reaffirmed a commitment to reopening their shared border and enhancing security cooperation. The Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline project advanced with Nigeria and Algeria.

Cameroon — 46.4 AMBER, Δ -1.0. ISWAP expanded into Darak, a strategic Far North border town. The Northwest saw the kidnapping of five Catholic clerics and four civilians in Bambui and a Belo ambush killing two soldiers. A defence agreement was signed with Nigeria; the US is finalising plans to redeploy troops to Maroua for ISR support. The government clarified the nationalisation of the electricity company, now SOCADEL, aiming to enhance state control and combat fraud.

Eritrea — 45.6 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Egypt has reportedly organised talks involving Eritrea, the Tigray Defense Force and the Sudanese Armed Forces, with efforts to include Ethiopia's Fano militia. The UN Human Rights Council is considering a resolution to extend the mandate of the Special Rapporteur; the Red Sea Afar Democratic Organization endorsed the UN report; the Eritrean government rejected it as "fundamentally flawed". The Eritrean Youth Movement launched a "Green Revolution" in Addis Ababa. Near-zero internet penetration continues; the Nakfa held its peg.

Nigeria — 45.1 AMBER, Δ +0.2. President Tinubu declared a nationwide security emergency and approved the recruitment of 50,000 police officers and additional military personnel. The US updated its travel advisory to Level 3 (reconsider travel) citing crime, terrorism, unrest and kidnapping. Former Army Chief Buratai warned that insurgency and banditry could persist for two decades without decisive action. Security forces are contending with a military convoy IED strike in Sokoto and Boko Haram-ISWAP clashes for control of Lake Chad islands. Headline inflation rose to 15.93% in May; the stock market saw significant losses; the Dangote refinery's output and falling global crude prices have brought some fuel-price relief.

Middle East and North Africa

Palestine — 62.8 AMBER (Security Risk and Macro Conditions remain in sustained-crisis state at scores 65.2 and 68.7 respectively), Δ -1.4. Over 1,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza since the October ceasefire; the Gaza Government Media Office cites 3,269 alleged ceasefire violations. Israeli forces expanded control in northern Gaza, displacing residents and conducting strikes that killed at least two in Nuseirat. The UN warns of electricity generators facing imminent halt for lack of spare parts and oils; government employees face deepening poverty amid salary crises; humanitarian travel via Rafah has been prevented following a UN vehicle attack. Elements of an international stability force have arrived in Israel for potential Gaza deployment. Hamas has reportedly pledged to hand over Gaza administration to a national committee in continuing Cairo talks; President Abbas amended the General Elections Law, increasing Legislative Council membership and lowering the electoral threshold. The West Bank economy is reportedly nearing collapse from Israeli restrictions.

Lebanon — 59.1 AMBER, Δ +0.5. Hezbollah launched a barrage of 176 projectiles, including rockets and drones, at Israeli positions in southern Lebanon. Israeli strikes killed a Lebanese army soldier; total casualties since March now over 4,100 killed and 12,000 injured. Iran reportedly conditioned progress in US-Iran talks in Switzerland on a cessation of hostilities in Lebanon and eased oil export restrictions. The Lebanese Army has advised displaced residents against immediate return to border villages. The Central Bank stabilised the Lebanese pound at approximately 89,500 to the dollar; annual inflation reached 17.3% in March, driven by food prices.

Syria — 47.3 AMBER, Δ +2.5 (largest 24h composite mover on the board). Electoral bodies convened to elect representatives for the first post-Assad parliament. The Ministry of Interior announced the detention of over 3,500 former regime members. President Sharaa received invitations to high-level international summits. Reports highlight a "cold war" among Druze, Kurds and Alawites resisting the new Sunni Arab authorities; protests for accountability and improved economic conditions continued across several cities. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented 1,749 deaths since the start of 2026 due to insecurity, with ISIS-linked assassinations and IEDs continuing. An Israeli forces patrol reportedly infiltrated the Yarmouk Basin near Daraa. A major undersea internet cable was damaged near Tartus; conversely, the Homs Refinery reactivated a key oil refining unit and Grimaldi Lines resumed shipping to Latakia Port.

Iraq — 46.8 AMBER, Δ +0.3. A US airstrike at the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran caused casualties. Prime Minister al-Zaidi has formed a committee to disengage the PMF and bring all weapons under state authority, alongside a major reshuffle of senior security and military leadership; armed factions including Kataeb al-Imam Ali and Asaib Ahl al-Haq have signalled support for integration. ISIS remains active with agricultural arson and ambushes in Nineveh, Kirkuk and Diyala. Gasoline imports fell 66% in Q1 2026, suggesting progress in domestic refining capacity or shifting consumption.

Iran — 44.9 AMBER, Δ -0.6. The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding was signed, ending hostilities and lifting the US naval blockade; the Supreme Leader approved despite initial reservations. Within hours, reports indicated a second consecutive day of US-Iran strikes; the IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again, citing truce violations; CENTCOM publicly disputed and stated the Strait remains open. Petrochemical and steel industries have sustained extensive damage with significant production declines; central-bank inflation is near 54%, overall prices 77% higher year-on-year, and food staples have tripled in price.

Israel — 44.7 AMBER, Δ -0.2. Israel launched airstrikes deep within Iran in retaliation for earlier missile attacks; Prime Minister Netanyahu convened the security cabinet. The Israeli Ambassador to the US alleged over 100 Hezbollah ceasefire violations; the IDF reported killing Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon and is preparing for potential rocket fire following an Israeli strike in Beirut. An IDF soldier was killed and 13 injured in a Hezbollah attack; Hezbollah claimed an ambush on an IDF unit and launched rocket barrages. In Gaza, Israeli strikes reportedly killed at least 15 people, including civilians; the Prime Minister's rhetoric suggested step-by-step annexation of Gaza, alongside consideration of advancing Knesset dissolution amid internal political disagreements. The US announced new rounds of Israel-Lebanon talks and an emergency session on Israel-Hezbollah added to US-Iran nuclear talks; an emerging US-Iran agreement has met with skepticism in Israel.

Libya — 44.4 AMBER, Δ +0.8. The US proposed a power-sharing initiative that garnered support from key Libyan factions, including the General Command of the Libyan Armed Forces; the heads of Libya's main political bodies agreed on a roadmap for presidential and parliamentary elections by February 2027; rival military factions cooperated in the multinational Flintlock 2026 exercise. Libya's National Oil Corporation signed new production-sharing agreements with international energy firms; the Central Bank increased personal foreign currency allowances. Armed clashes continued in southern Tripoli, displacing over 1,200 families; the Az Zawiya Oil Refinery remained shut down after earlier fighting; multi-city arrest and detention operations targeting migrants expanded; at least 15 migrant bodies washed ashore in eastern Libya.

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 59.0 AMBER (Security Risk in sustained-crisis state at score 72.4 — the only PIR above 70 on the board), Δ +0.1. Min Aung Hlaing concluded a state visit to China, yielding 18 cooperation agreements across various sectors with Chinese pledges of firm support for Myanmar's sovereignty and development. The civil war intensified with a surge in junta air and drone strikes; airstrikes in Mon, Magway and Rakhine States produced civilian casualties. Inflation has surged to nearly 25%, attributed by the World Bank to the conflict and external fuel-price shocks. The regime confirmed 24/7 social media surveillance; international calls for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners continue, with foreign embassies launching digital campaigns.

Philippines — 44.0 AMBER, Δ -1.3. The Philippines is managing the aftermath of a magnitude 7.0 earthquake in Southern Mindanao that produced at least 12 fatalities and 200 injuries; President Marcos visited General Santos City and allocated P100m for reconstruction. Manila has deepened security cooperation: a comprehensive strategic partnership upgrade with Japan, strengthened alliances with Vietnam and the US, conclusion of a six-day maritime activity with the US in the West Philippine Sea, and the launch of Exercise Salaknib 2026 with the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. President Marcos expressed openness to a Visiting Forces Pact with Germany. Former Senate President Drilon warned of a potential "second envelope" crisis in the Vice-President's impeachment trial; the Armed Forces Chief of Staff confirmed military neutrality. The central bank raised its key rate by 25bp to 4.75%.

Indonesia — 41.3 AMBER, Δ +0.3. No OSINT events of note were captured in the past 48 hours; the country's assessment posture remains unchanged at AMBER on Governance, Security and Macro Conditions and GREEN on Operating Environment. The previous cycle's rupiah depreciation, emergency Bank Indonesia rate hike and commodity-export centralisation policy remain the operative backdrop.

Nepal — 39.9 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Courts and civil society have scrutinised a pattern of arrests preceding clear evidence; the Home Minister announced plans to reopen all crime files and strengthen the Central Investigation Bureau. The Nepali Congress demanded government clarity on the Prime Minister's border remarks. Joint security bases were established in Bajura; anti-drug and sweep operations were conducted across Jhapa and Pokhara. The US State Department maintained Level 2. Foreign-exchange reserves are above $22bn; Foreign Minister Khanal visited China to discuss economic cooperation.

Pakistan — 38.8 AMBER, Δ 0.0. Pakistan mediated the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran; Prime Minister Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir were directly involved through electronic signing and Switzerland technical talks. The UN Ambassador warned the Security Council of an "alarming rise" in militant threats from Afghanistan; Islamabad and Kabul exchanged claims of cross-border strikes; major border crossings with Afghanistan remain closed. Two roadside bombings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed at least seven. The State Department maintained "Reconsider Travel". Weekly inflation rose 0.46% to an annual 15.28%; June inflation is projected at a two-year high.

Bangladesh — 38.6 AMBER, Δ -1.7. A report highlighted a "fragile" law and order situation, citing rising crime and political violence; a Shiv Sena leader was killed in Gaibandha in an attack involving BNP and Juba Dal activists; Police Headquarters issued a nationwide security alert ahead of the banned Awami League's founding anniversary. Border Guard Bangladesh deployed forces across 26 districts to prevent alleged push-ins by India's BSF; Human Rights Watch accused India of attempting to push back Bengali-speaking Muslims. The BNP demanded parliamentary elections by August 2026. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman commenced his first foreign tour to Malaysia and China. Foreign-exchange reserves reached a 43-month high of $35.63bn, partly on a $1bn ADB loan.

Republic of Korea — 30.3 AMBER, Δ -0.2. The KOSPI index surged to the world's best-performing major index in the period, supported by a 60.4% jump in exports in the first 20 days of June, driven by semiconductors. President Lee Jae-myung attended the G7 Summit, held bilateral talks with European leaders, and signed a digital trade pact with the EU. A ballot scandal followed local elections; the Election Commission Chairman resigned. The President indicated the US is open to a phased approach for North Korea's denuclearisation; North Korea installed fences near the Military Demarcation Line, deemed an armistice violation by the South Korean military.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 45.2 AMBER, Δ +0.7. A joint US-Venezuelan military operation killed a key Tren de Aragua leader, confirmed by the US Secretary of War. US-backed transition talks between the interim government and opposition figures continue, including the return of Dinorah Figuera from exile. Venezuela signed a major agreement with General Electric Vernova to renovate its electric system and signed five oil and gas agreements with Shell; maritime crude oil exports have surged on eased US licenses. Public discontent over enduring US "guardianship" and the lack of broad-based economic improvements persists in Caracas. The official Bolivar exchange rate ticked up slightly. President Maduro announced upcoming military exercises across the country, including in border areas.

Guyana — 35.6 AMBER, Δ -0.3. A former Assistant Police Commissioner raised concerns over a national security emergency citing 33 seized illegal assault rifles and a series of bombings; the National Security Advisor framed the recovery as proactive success. A US Army War College expert indicated a likely shift of South American criminal gangs into Guyana under regional pressure. Guyana is hosting the multinational Tradewinds security exercise (US plus 12 partner nations); the GDF qualified 30 new instructors. A Canadian travel advisory highlights a volatile security environment at the Venezuela-Guyana border. The World Bank projects Guyana among the strongest-performing economies in the Caribbean and Latin America; ExxonMobil submitted a 35-well exploration campaign application and a five-year drilling plan.

Europe

Ukraine — 42.0 AMBER, Δ +1.2. Ukraine formally opened negotiations on the first EU accession chapter group (the EU's "Fundamentals" track); G7 leaders reaffirmed support and pledged increased air defence and licensed production of long-range missiles. Ukraine escalated its long-range strike campaign, targeting Russian military logistics, oil infrastructure and gas compressors in Crimea and beyond; strikes led to suspension of civilian fuel sales in Russian-occupied Crimea and reports of fuel shortages in Russia. Russia conducted massive missile and drone attacks, damaging cultural sites in Kyiv including the historic Kyiv Pechersk Lavra. Humanitarian organisations report the displacement crisis persists, exacerbated by aid cuts.

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 39.2 AMBER, Δ -1.0. Milorad Dodik reiterated demands for UN Security Council confirmation of the High Representative's appointment; EU member states remain divided over a successor. BH Telecom concluded its 3G network shutdown; the Southern Gas Interconnection project entered implementation. Twenty-five police and customs officials were arrested in a Serbia-BiH border corruption probe; a report noted increased traffic of weapons and military equipment. The IMF projects a slight slowdown in BiH economic growth for 2026 and notes expansionary fiscal policy; the financial sector remains stable and unemployment in the Federation of BiH decreased.

Georgia — 36.6 AMBER, Δ +0.1. Amnesty International released a report detailing severe erosion of human rights; the EU Parliament passed a resolution calling for targeted sanctions on Georgian Dream leaders, citing a reversal of EU integration. GDP grew 9% in Q1 2026 driven by IT and logistics; domestic exports surged 66.1% to a record $1.9bn, with oil product exports up 3700% year-on-year; the National Bank held the policy rate at 8.25%. A Georgian citizen was sentenced for espionage in Abkhazia. Georgia hosted trilateral special forces exercises "Caucasus Eagle 2026" with Türkiye and Azerbaijan.

Armenia — 32.5 AMBER, Δ +0.3. Aftermath of the 7 June parliamentary elections remains contentious: opposition "Strong Armenia" appealed to the Constitutional Court to annul results or mandate a second round; Prime Minister Pashinyan dismissed new elections and warned the opposition against war rhetoric; the Central Electoral Commission certified the results. Parliamentary immunity of former President Robert Kocharyan was revoked. Pashinyan declared the Karabakh issue closed and confirmed preparation to institutionalise a bilateral peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Armenia commenced "Eagle Partner 2026" military exercises with US, French and Greek troops. The Central Bank warned of potential short-term pressures from Russian export restrictions.