US strikes reach Iran's ports and power grid as the war spreads to Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain

This is the new format for the Crisis Radar daily digest. A few things have changed. Each country name and watch-list entry now links directly to the relevant page on the Crisis Radar site, so you can open the full detail in a browser whenever you want more than the summary. The digest also now includes charts: the countries whose risk rating changed in the last 24 hours, and how risk is trending globally and by region. Forward-looking strategic outlooks are deliberately not included yet — those predictive assessments are being tracked against real events over a period and calibrated before they are put in front of you, so what follows is a summary of the current picture, not a forecast. The underlying analysis is unchanged; only the presentation and the added links and graphics are new. Feedback on the format is welcome.

Cycle: 2026-07-20 · 35 countries · 738 events (7-day window; capped from 948) · 79 change flags.

BLUF

The US-Iran war continued through the weekend. US forces completed a seventh consecutive night of strikes on Iranian territory on 18 July and launched further airstrikes on 19 July against Revolutionary Guard units near the Strait of Hormuz, damaging an electricity and desalination plant, tunnels and bridges in Hormozgan province (19 July, B1). Tehran suspended its memorandum of understanding with Washington on 19 July after Iranian strikes in Jordan killed US troops (A2), and the strait Iran declared closed on 13 July remains shut to most traffic. Country detail across the roster is on the Crisis Radar daily board.

The Sahel produced the weekend's heaviest military losses. Over 50 Malian soldiers were killed in an ambush near Anefis on 19 July, the second ambush in two days after an army convoy in the Gao region suffered scores killed or captured on 18 July (B1). In Niger, an attack in the Tillabéri region killed 16 soldiers on 19 July (B2). Chad's composite rose 7.5 in 24 hours, the sharpest rise on the board after Nepal, following a Sudanese general's threat of military action against Chad (10 July) and reported cross-border engagements on the Cameroon and Niger frontiers (14 July).

South Sudan holds the highest composite on the board at 99.2. The Red Cross evacuated further civilians from active conflict areas on 17 July, border clashes at Kajo-Keji have displaced 10,000 civilians (16 July), and fuel prices soared nationwide on 15 July.

In Lebanon, the army began deploying into the southern pilot zones on 18 July under the guidelines agreed with Israel in Rome on 15 July, while an Israeli strike the same day killed two people in the south and a Lebanese army soldier was killed in a separate strike at Mansouri (18 July, A2). President Aoun departed for Washington on 18 July to meet President Trump on the ceasefire framework, which Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah has called "doomed to fail" (16 July). A UN report presented to the Security Council on 15 July documented over 4,100 casualties in Lebanon from Israeli operations since the ceasefire period began (A1).

Watch list — 24h

#	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ 24h	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan	99.2	RED²	+1.9	Red Cross evacuates civilians as border clashes displace 10,000; fuel prices soar
2	Myanmar	94.5	RED²	+0.6	Over 500 feared dead in two shipwrecks; heavy fighting erupts in Myawaddy
3	Somalia	92.5	RED²	−0.1	US funding withdrawal pressures peacekeeping mission; 25 Al-Shabaab killed
4	Syria	89.8	RED²	+1.2	US to delist Syria as state sponsor of terrorism; military units integrated
5	Chad	89.7	RED²	+7.5	Sudanese general threatens military action; France ties redefined
6	Venezuela	89.4	RED²	−0.4	CIA intelligence on alleged Maduro election-rigging declassified; quake toll 5,119
7	DR Congo	87.8	RED²	+1.6	M23 confirmed most lethal armed group in the east; ADF expands into Haut-Uélé
8	Mali	87.2	RED²	+2.5	Over 50 soldiers killed in ambush near Anefis, second ambush in two days
9	Nigeria	85.6	RED²	+2.8	Petrol imports rise 207% in one month, pressuring the naira
10	Iran	85.5	RED²	+0.4	US strikes hit Hormozgan infrastructure; Tehran suspends MoU with Washington

² Holds RED on individual indicator groups: South Sudan (Governance & Political Risk 100.0, Operating Environment 100.0, Security Risk 100.0), Myanmar (Governance & Political Risk 100.0, Security Risk 100.0), Somalia (Security Risk 100.0, Governance & Political Risk 99.3), Syria (Security Risk 100.0), Chad (Security Risk 98.1, Governance & Political Risk 95.2), Venezuela (Governance & Political Risk 92.9, Operating Environment 91.1), DR Congo (Security Risk 94.8, Governance & Political Risk 94.1), Mali (Security Risk 99.9, Governance & Political Risk 93.3), Nigeria (Security Risk 91.6), Iran (Operating Environment 90.0).

Largest deteriorations (24h): Nepal +8.8 · Chad +7.5 · Iraq +6.1 · Israel +4.1 · Libya +3.1 · Pakistan +3.0 · Nigeria +2.8 · Moldova +2.8. Largest improvements (24h): Bosnia and Herzegovina −1.0 · Venezuela −0.4 · Somalia −0.1 · Philippines −0.1 · Guyana −0.1.

Cross-cutting themes

US strikes reach Iran's ports and power grid as the war spreads to Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain

US airstrikes on 19 July damaged an electricity and desalination plant, tunnels and bridges in Hormozgan province (B1), after strikes on 17–18 July hit bridges and an airport in southern Iran (A1) and collapsed a tower at Chabahar port (18 July, B1). Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan on 18 July (B1), and Iranian strikes in Jordan killed US troops, after which Tehran suspended its memorandum of understanding with Washington on 19 July (A2). Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned of "unforgettable lessons" as the US resumed a naval blockade (18 July, A2). The rial hit a new low against the dollar on 17 July, with the exchange rate nearing 1.92 million (B2).

Iraq: a US soldier was killed in the north on 18 July while dismantling an Iranian drone (B1); drone strikes halted oil loadings at Basra port on 15–16 July (B1); international oil firms halted production in Kurdistan on 18 July (A2).
Britain designated the Revolutionary Guard a national security threat after the Guard struck Qatar's Al Udeid air base (17 July, B2).
Syria: Iran claimed an attack on a command centre in Syria on 17 July — its first direct strike there — which the Syrian military denied; US embassies issued urgent travel warnings for Syria on 18 July.
Israel: Washington informed Israel on 19 July of its intent to escalate strikes on Iran (C2 — treat with caution); Iranian missiles launched towards Jordan the same day produced explosions heard near Eilat, and the US military altered Ben Gurion Airport arrangements (14 July, B2).
Oil prices rose on the missile exchanges and the Hormuz closure (13 July, B2); Hormuz transits fell further on 17 July (B2).

Sahel armies suffer their heaviest losses of the month in Mali and Niger

Over 50 Malian soldiers were killed in an ambush near Anefis on 19 July, a day after a Malian army convoy in the northern Gao region was ambushed with scores killed or captured (18 July, B1). In Niger, an attack in the Tillabéri region killed 16 soldiers on 19 July (B2). The losses come as both governments claim large counter-militant tolls — Mali's army says over 1,000 assailants "neutralised" in recent operations (13 July, B1), and Nigeria's military reported 300 bandits killed in Zamfara on 16 July.

Chad: a Sudanese general threatened military action against Chad on 10 July, and cross-border military engagements were reported on the Cameroon-Chad and Niger-Chad borders on 14 July; Chad and France redefined their military cooperation on 20 July.
Nigeria: the US withdrew most troops from a counterterrorism operation in the northeast on 15 July (A2).
Niger: the government reinforced fuel-distribution controls on 19 July after a diesel shortage in Niamey.

Washington winds down security commitments in Iraq, Somalia and Nigeria

The US military will complete its withdrawal from Iraq by the end of September, ending a 23-year presence (14 July, A1). The US decision of 13 July to block continued UN support for the African Union mission in Somalia is now pressuring the mission's finances, with reports on 18 July that it faces collapse (B2). The US also withdrew most troops from the counterterrorism operation in northeast Nigeria on 15 July (A2).

Iraq: Prime Minister Zaidi signed multi-billion-dollar economic agreements with US firms during his Washington visit (17 July), and seven Iraqi banks resumed dollar transactions on 18 July after a US Treasury agreement.
Lebanon: UNIFIL contributors are heading for the exits (17 July, B2), and Germany's foreign minister proposed an EU force to replace the mission on 18 July.
The Philippines is the counter-example: Manila received $80 million in US defence aid on 19 July.

Venezuela's earthquake recovery collides with declassified election-rigging intelligence

The death toll from the 17 July earthquake reached 5,119, with economic damage estimated to exceed 30% of GDP. The same day, the US declassified CIA intelligence alleging Maduro-government election-rigging active since 2012 (B1). Caracas accessed $346 million from the IMF on 18 July, with CAF supporting a reconstruction fund (B1).

June inflation accelerated to 13.8% monthly — 544% annualised — and the bolívar devalued 15.6% against the dollar in July (17 July, A2).
Acting President Delcy Rodríguez hardened her political line on 18 July as Saudi investment talks advanced (B1).
Guyana: a Venezuela-based group is suspected in a death threat against the CANU chief (17 July), after CARICOM's 14 July statement of concern over attacks on Guyana Defence Force ranks from Venezuelan territory (A2).

Country daily updates

Sub Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 99.2 RED, Δ +1.9. The Red Cross evacuated more people from active conflict areas on 17 July, and a bishop appealed for aid after border clashes at Kajo-Keji displaced 10,000 civilians (16 July). A Juba court concluded testimony in the case against Machar's co-accused on 17 July, and Northern Bahr el Ghazal opened an investigation into alleged torture by security operatives the same day. Fuel prices soared nationwide on 15 July, and phone and internet charges rose on 18 July after a telecom tariff adjustment. President Kiir inaugurated Juba Airport's Terminal 3 on 16 July.

Somalia — 92.5 RED, Δ −0.1. The US withdrawal of funding is pressuring the African Union peacekeeping mission, with reports on 18 July that it faces collapse, following the 13 July US decision to block continued UN support. Somali forces reported killing 25 Al-Shabaab militants and accepting four surrenders on 18 July, after airstrikes in Hiran killed 42 fighters (13 July, B2). Soaring fuel prices were affecting healthcare access by 20 July, and an internet outage hit Banaadir and other regions on 15 July.

Chad — 89.7 RED, Δ +7.5. A Sudanese general threatened military action against Chad on 10 July, and cross-border military engagements were reported along the Cameroon-Chad and Niger-Chad borders on 14 July. Chad and France redefined their military cooperation on 20 July. The government launched a $635 million road project on 18 July to boost trade with Libyan ports, and hosted the African Water Forum on 17 July, signing the N'Djamena Declaration for Water Security (A2). Belgium updated its travel advisory on 17 July, citing general insecurity; the government was authorised on 10 July to legislate by ordinance during the parliamentary recess.

DR Congo — 87.8 RED, Δ +1.6. The Kivu Security Tracker identified M23 as responsible for 114 civilian deaths in June, the most lethal armed group in the east (18 July, B2). The ADF expanded operations into Haut-Uélé on 19 July (B2), and FARDC and Wazalendo forces withdrew from Nkingwe and Malemo after clashes with M23 (15 July). Washington's mid-July deadline for Rwandan troop withdrawal passed without action (15 July, A2), though the joint ceasefire-verification mechanism with M23 was completed on 17 July (A2). The UK now advises against all but essential travel to North and South Kivu (17 July, A2). Opposition groups maintain their call for a 22 July march demanding President Tshisekedi's departure; the central bank cut its key rate to 12.5% on 17 July.

Mali — 87.2 RED, Δ +2.5. Over 50 Malian soldiers were killed in an ambush near Anefis on 19 July, a day after an army convoy in the northern Gao region was ambushed with scores killed or captured (18 July, B1). The military command had reinforced Anefis on 16 July after earlier clashes. A large fuel convoy reached Bamako on 18 July, easing shortages. The government amended the nationality law on 17 July to allow stripping citizenship for actions against national interests.

Nigeria — 85.6 RED, Δ +2.8. Petrol imports rose 207% in one month (19 July, B2), pressuring the naira, and importers plan to raise depot prices to ₦1,350 per litre (17 July). The US withdrew most troops from a counterterrorism operation in the northeast on 15 July (A2). The military reported 300 bandits killed in Zamfara on 16 July. Opposition parties attacked President Tinubu's economic record on 19 July, with Peter Obi repeating his 2023 election claims; a surge in fibre cuts hit broadband infrastructure (15 July).

Eritrea — 83.8 RED, Δ +2.0. Fuel prices have quadrupled in a deepening inflation crisis (14 July, C2 — treat with caution). Ethiopia imposed strict visa restrictions on Eritrean citizens on 18 July, curbing cross-border movement. Egypt and Eritrea jointly rejected any externally imposed Red Sea security role on 19 July. Canada's advisory of 13 July notes the border with Ethiopia remains militarised.

Niger — 83.3 RED, Δ +2.2. An attack in the Tillabéri region killed 16 soldiers on 19 July (B2). The government reinforced controls on fuel distribution the same day, after a diesel shortage in Niamey earlier in the month. Journalist Hamid Mahmoud was freed on 18 July after months of detention in Agadez. The US "Do Not Travel" advisory renewed on 9 July remains in force, citing security risks and dangerous road conditions.

Ethiopia — 82.8 RED, Δ +0.4. Thousands gathered in Addis Ababa on 18 July for the National Dialogue Forum, which formally opened on 15 July with over 100 diaspora members and political parties participating (A2). Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed warned "enemy countries" against undermining Ethiopia on 15 July, and the Ombudsman's office said on 18 July it lacks authority to question Parliament over a media ban. The central bank raised its interest rate to 16% and lifted the credit cap on 13 July (B1). Ethiopia and South Sudan held conflict-mitigation talks on 17 July; multiple governments reissued travel warnings on 13 July, citing the ongoing conflict.

Cameroon — 79.2 RED, Δ +2.2. A gold rush has killed 100 people by official count, with more deaths suspected (17 July, B2). Seven passengers were kidnapped in the Northwest Region on 19 July. President Biya's 40-day absence from public view is fuelling debate over the appointment of a vice president (17 July). The government announced plans on 19 July to recover over $500 million in unpaid gold taxes, and students protested new French visa financial requirements in Yaoundé on 16 July.

Middle East and North Africa

Syria — 89.8 RED, Δ +1.2. The US announced on 8 July its intention to delist Syria as a state sponsor of terrorism, and Syria and Germany signed an air transport agreement and launched a joint reconstruction committee on 19 July (B2). The Ministry of Defense announced the integration of all military units on 17 July (B1). Iran claimed an attack on a command centre in Syria on 17 July, which the Syrian military denied; US embassies issued urgent travel warnings on 18 July. Fuel prices rose about 12% on 16 July under a new daily pricing mechanism, and security forces seized a large arms shipment on the Iraq border destined for Hezbollah the same day.

Iran — 85.5 RED, Δ +0.4. US airstrikes on 19 July damaged an electricity and desalination plant, tunnels and bridges in Hormozgan (B1), following a seventh consecutive night of strikes on 18 July and the collapse of a tower at Chabahar port (B1). Tehran suspended its memorandum of understanding with Washington on 19 July after Iranian strikes in Jordan killed US troops (A2). The Revolutionary Guard claimed strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan (18 July, B1), and Supreme Leader Khamenei warned of "unforgettable lessons" as the US resumed a naval blockade (18 July, A2). The rial hit a new low near 1.92 million to the dollar (17 July, B2); a US missile attack killed seven servicemen in Sistan and Baluchestan (15 July, B1).

Palestinian Territories — 85.3 RED, Δ +1.1. Israeli strikes killed nine Palestinians on 18 July and ten on 17 July (WAFA and wire reporting). The Gaza reconstruction plan was scaled back on 18 July to a Rafah pilot project under the US-backed Board of Peace (B2). Hamas dissolved its Gaza government on 6 July and is preparing to transfer power to a UN-backed committee. Israel approved $334 million for West Bank settlement roads on 16 July (B1), and settlers raided a village in a PA-run area on 17 July, with Israeli forces allowing them to leave. The Israeli army expanded the "Yellow Line" strip in eastern Gaza City on 16 July (B2).

Iraq — 82.7 RED, Δ +6.1. A US soldier was killed in northern Iraq on 18 July while dismantling an Iranian drone (B1), and the US military confirmed on 14 July it will complete its withdrawal by the end of September (A1). Drone strikes halted oil loadings at Basra port on 15–16 July (B1), the US Embassy issued a security alert after drone attacks on Erbil (16 July, A1), and international oil firms halted production in Kurdistan on 18 July (A2). The Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced a $10 million reward for targeting Donald Trump on 17 July (B2). Prime Minister Zaidi signed multi-billion-dollar deals with US firms in Washington (17 July), and seven Iraqi banks resumed dollar transactions on 18 July after a US Treasury agreement; the state deficit jumped 68% in the first quarter (14 July, B2).

Lebanon — 81.2 RED, Δ +1.4. The Lebanese army began deploying into southern pilot zones on 18 July under guidelines agreed with Israel in Rome on 15 July (A1). An Israeli strike killed two people in the south on 18 July, and a Lebanese army soldier was killed in a strike at Mansouri the same day (A2). President Aoun departed for Washington on 18 July to meet President Trump on the ceasefire framework; Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah declared the framework "doomed to fail" (16 July, A2). The US renewed its "Do Not Travel" advisory on 18 July (A1). A UN report of 15 July documented over 4,100 casualties from Israeli operations (A1), and an ILO report indicates one-third of the private-sector workforce is unemployed.

Libya — 78.1 RED, Δ +3.1. A nationwide power blackout on 18 July cut supply from Misrata to the Egyptian border. Turkey and Haftar's command expanded military cooperation the same day (B2), a week after rival eastern and western military chiefs held unification talks in Sirte and agreed joint drills (13 July, B1). An unrecognised "third government" declared itself in Geneva on 19 July. The FAO reported an 18% rise in food prices and forecast a decline in grain production (18 July, A1); the National Oil Corporation announced discovery of the "Eassar" field with estimated reserves of 195 million barrels (17 July, B2).

Egypt — 64.2 AMBER, Δ +1.6. Egypt unveiled new Russian weapons and inaugurated "The Octagon" military command centre on 19 July, and concluded the "Golden Eagle" joint exercise with Turkey on 18 July (B1). President Sisi discussed land reclamation and Nile water issues in Tanzania on 19 July. The pound weakened to 50.55 to the dollar on 17 July, and the central bank held interest rates for a third consecutive meeting on 9 July. Egypt and Eritrea jointly rejected an externally imposed Red Sea security role on 19 July.

Israel — 51.8 AMBER (RED on Security Risk), Δ +4.1. Iranian missiles launched towards Jordan on 19 July produced explosions heard near Eilat, and Washington informed Israel the same day of its intent to escalate strikes on Iran (C2 — treat with caution). Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed ten people on 19 July, and ministers announced plans on 18 July for new settlements in Gaza and the West Bank after the government approved $370–434 million for West Bank settlement construction (14 July, B2). The Knesset passed a bill on 14 July to enshrine Torah study as a Basic Law (A2), and the deputy foreign minister resigned on 17 July over the Haredi draft law.

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 89.4 RED, Δ −0.4. The US declassified CIA intelligence on 17 July alleging Maduro-government election-rigging active since 2012 (B1). The earthquake death toll reached 5,119 the same day, with economic damage estimated to exceed 30% of GDP. Caracas accessed $346 million from the IMF on 18 July, with CAF supporting a reconstruction fund (B1). June inflation accelerated to 13.8% monthly — 544% annualised — and the bolívar devalued 15.6% against the dollar in July (17 July, A2). Acting President Delcy Rodríguez hardened her political line on 18 July as Saudi investment talks advanced.

Guyana — 49.6 AMBER, Δ −0.1. Authorities are investigating a death threat against the CANU chief, with a Venezuela-based group suspected (17 July). A joint CANU-GRA operation at a Georgetown wharf seized cannabis, firearms and ammunition the same day. CARICOM expressed concern on 14 July over attacks on Guyana Defence Force ranks from Venezuelan territory (A2).

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 94.5 RED, Δ +0.6. Over 500 people are feared dead in two shipwrecks off Myanmar (16 July, A1). Heavy fighting erupted in Myawaddy, Karen State, on 19 July (B1), and the military conducted airstrikes in Rakhine State on 17 July, where flooding is worsening the humanitarian situation (A1). Russian and Myanmar forces held a joint exercise in Naypyidaw on 15 July (B2). The junta leader Min Aung Hlaing is to visit Thailand in August (15 July, B1).

Bangladesh — 78.7 RED, Δ +0.4. India confirmed on 17 July it is reviewing Bangladesh's request to extradite former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (B2), who is reported to plan a December return to surrender (10 July). Large protests erupted in Dhaka on 18 July over the arrest of a Hindu man building a Lord Ram statue (C1 — single-strand reporting, treat with caution). Apparel exports to the EU and US fell materially in the first five months of 2026 (17 July, B2). Dhaka announced plans on 19 July for a 108-km border fence along the Myanmar frontier (B2).

Pakistan — 76.8 RED, Δ +3.0. Security forces killed 24 militants in Bannu and foiled a major plot in Wana on 18 July, after border raids near Afghanistan killed 24 on 17 July; Operation Shaban in Balochistan has killed 129 militants since 5 July (16 July, B2). An Air Force group captain was shot dead in Islamabad on 18 July, with an arrest made. India's freeze of the Indus Water Treaty on 8 July poses a material economic risk to agriculture. The US, UK and Canada updated travel advisories on 16 July (A2), and Karachi faces a 10-hour electricity shutdown on 20 July after widespread flight disruptions on 13 July.

Nepal — 68.6 AMBER (RED on Security Risk), Δ +8.8 (largest 24h composite mover). A committee found insufficient evidence to prosecute security chiefs over the 2025 protest deaths on 20 July, and the home minister has refused the report (A2). A legal activist detailed a violent arrest by police in Kathmandu on 19 July. A government task force submitted constitutional amendment proposals on 17 July without consensus (A2), after major parties walked out of the review process on 8 July. Tribhuvan International Airport extended its daily closure to 10 hours for maintenance (18 July); the US eased its travel advisory on 19 July, citing improved security.

Philippines — 63.1 AMBER (RED on Governance & Political Risk and Security Risk), Δ −0.1. President Marcos's trust rating fell to a record-low 34% on 19 July (A2), a day before his State of the Nation Address, for which police deployed 20,000 personnel. The military recovered seven high-powered firearms from NPA rebels in Caraga on 20 July. Manila received $80 million in US defence aid on 19 July and hosted the ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting on 18 July with US and Chinese diplomats attending. Manila lodged a formal protest with China on 17 July over a state-media video; the US advises increased caution for travel, citing crime, terrorism and kidnapping (13 July, A1).

Indonesia — 53.6 AMBER, Δ +2.5. President Prabowo said on 17 July that defence and police budgets could be cut to fund poverty eradication (A1). Food prices climbed nationwide on 19 July as the free meal programme resumed, and Bank Indonesia is expected to raise rates to 6.00%. The jailing of the Gojek founder is unsettling investor confidence (14 July, B1); troops deployed to secure Balinggama Airport in Yahukimo on 18 July.

Taiwan — 35.6 AMBER, Δ +2.8. The stock market plunged nearly 2,000 points on 17 July after a US semiconductor sell-off, and public inflation anxiety reached 68% by 20 July. President Lai Ching-te warned on 19 July against Taiwan becoming "China's Taiwan" (B1). Taiwan's representative office in Panama was reported closed on 18 July, and the army conducted cross-region reinforcement drills.

Europe

Ukraine — 75.7 RED, Δ +1.3. Russia launched a major missile and drone attack on Kyiv and the Dnipropetrovsk region on 19 July (B2), while Ukraine struck a Russian oil depot in Stavropol Krai and targets in occupied Crimea and Luhansk the same day, after hitting two Russian logistics centres and an oil depot on 18 July. Protests erupted in Kyiv on 16 July over the dismissal of Defence Minister Fedorov, and Parliament appointed a new cabinet under Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi the same day (B2). The IMF considers the next tranche allocation on 20 July. Russian attacks on energy facilities on 10 July halved generation capacity; ports still processed 42.4 million tonnes of cargo in the first half of 2026 (17 July, A1). President Zelenskyy met Prime Minister Starmer in Kyiv on 16 July (A1).

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 56.0 AMBER, Δ −1.0. The upper house approved two key EU reform bills on 15 July after a two-year delay (B2). The Republika Srpska parliament adopted a declaration asserting its "statehood" on 7 July. The Peace Implementation Council failed to agree a new High Representative on 14 July (B2); Louis J. Crishock assumed the acting role on 7 July.

Azerbaijan — 55.5 AMBER, Δ +1.6. President Aliyev is considering withdrawal from the Council of Europe (13 July, A2), following expanded government authority to block websites (11 July). Baku announced the "Power of Unity 2026" joint exercise with six nations on 17 July, after the trilateral "Eternity-2026" drills with Georgia and Turkey were announced on 16 July. The foreign trade surplus rose nearly sixfold in the first half of 2026 (15 July, B1), and annual inflation reached 5.8% in June.

Georgia — 52.5 AMBER, Δ +1.1. Prosecutors branded the US and CIA "hostile forces" during the "sabotage case" trial in Tbilisi (15 July, A2), following the 13-year sentence handed to opposition politician Aleko Elisashvili on 10 July. Prime Minister Kobakhidze accused the United National Movement of "political terror" on 18 July. Georgia and Turkmenistan signed broad cooperation agreements on 17 July; Georgia was not invited to the NATO summit.

Moldova — 52.2 AMBER, Δ +2.8. The EU approved €120 million for Moldova's air defences against drone threats (13 July, A1), and the European Parliament reaffirmed support for Moldova's security and EU path on 15 July (B1). Chisinau opened a new area of EU accession negotiations covering security and foreign policy on 14 July (A1) and issued a protest note to the Russian ambassador over a drone incident the same day (B1). Gagauzia's assembly rejected the Constitutional Court's 9 July ruling curbing the autonomy's powers and reaffirmed its 15 November election date; PM-designate Vasile Tofan announced a partial cabinet reshuffle on 17 July.

Armenia — 50.5 AMBER, Δ +2.7. The government approved ratification of the TRIPP strategic cooperation agreement with the US, including defence cooperation, on 16 July (A2). A court transferred the Araratcement plant to state ownership on 17 July in the case against opposition leader Gagik Tsarukyan, detained since 6 July (B2). The World Bank warned on 18 July that continued Russian trade restrictions could affect economic conditions (A1); trade turnover with Russia fell 20.5% in January-May. The US reissued its travel advisory on 16 July, citing border conflict risks.