US strike threats and attacks on Gulf shipping keep Iran on a war footing

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The White House signalled on 1 August that President Trump is weighing fresh strikes on Iran, and US embassies across the Middle East issued a travel warning the same day; tankers near Oman came under fire as Tehran threatened to close shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's composite stands at 93.4.
Hamas agreed on 31 July to disarm as part of a phased Gaza peace plan, with conditions, after President Trump announced a deal for factions to surrender their weapons (30 July); on 2 August Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu suspended strikes on Iran. Israel struck Gaza on 1 August despite the pledge, and Gaza authorities recovered 112 bodies from rubble.
A Maï-Maï attack killed eight people in Haut-Katanga on 2 August as AFC/M23 and Wazalendo fighters clashed in Masisi, and DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 3,400 cases; its composite of 97.8 is second only to South Sudan (99.8).
Twenty-three of the 35 monitored countries now sit in the high-risk band, with power shortages and currency falls driving unrest across Libya, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Venezuela. Full country-by-country scoring is on the Global Risk board.

Watch list — 48h

#	Country	Composite	RAG	Δ 48h	Lead judgement
1	South Sudan	99.8	RED²	-0.2	Suspected White Army fighters attack Greater Pibor as election registration opens
2	Somalia	98.3	RED²	-0.4	African Union sets 18–24 month AUSSOM exit deadline as US funding wavers
3	DR Congo	97.8	RED²	-0.2	Maï-Maï attack kills eight in Haut-Katanga; M23–Wazalendo clashes in Masisi
4	Myanmar	96.9	RED²	-1.3	President rejects ASEAN peace plan; EU sanctions armed group over cyberscams
5	Venezuela	95.3	RED²	-0.4	Government and opposition open US-backed transition talks; bolívar down ~20% in July
6	Iran	93.4	RED¹²	+0.4	Tankers fired on near Oman as Tehran threatens Hormuz; US warns of fresh strikes
7	Syria	93.3	RED²	+0.4	Israeli forces set up new checkpoints in the southwest; war remnants kill or wound 50
8	Mali	91.7	RED²	-1.6	Army conducts airstrikes on the JNIM-FLA coalition in Kidal
9	Chad	91.6	RED²	-0.6	Adré crossing with Sudan reopens; refugee influx and deadly water clashes in the east
10	Niger	91.2	RED²	+1.0	Seventeen security forces killed in Diffa as the junta marks three years

¹ At severe risk across every dimension we track — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy: Iran.

² Also holding at the top of the severity range across several dimensions: South Sudan, Somalia, DR Congo, Myanmar, Venezuela, Iran, Syria, Mali, Chad, Niger, the Palestinian Territories, Nigeria, Libya, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Lebanon, Cameroon, Bangladesh, Iraq, Ukraine, Egypt, Nepal, the Philippines, Guyana, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Israel.

Largest 48-hour deteriorations: Bangladesh (+4.3), Nigeria (+2.4) and Egypt (+1.6). Largest improvements: the Palestinian Territories (-2.3), Georgia (-1.6) and Mali (-1.6).

Cross-cutting themes

US strike threats and attacks on Gulf shipping keep Iran on a war footing

The White House signalled on 1 August that President Trump is weighing fresh strikes on Iran, and US embassies across the Middle East issued a travel warning anticipating new attacks (B1). Tankers near Oman came under fire the same day as Tehran threatened to close shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz (1 August, B2); the IRGC claimed it had struck and detained tankers in the strait (30 July, Iranian state-affiliated — treat with caution).

Iran warned regional states against hosting US or Israeli attacks (1 August, B2) and reaffirmed its threat to close Hormuz after Trump vowed "very hard" strikes (31 July).
In Iraq, the prime minister ordered a maximum military alert (31 July, B1) after US-Saudi airstrikes killed about 20 Popular Mobilisation Forces members in the east (29 July); Baghdad said it neither approved nor knew of the strikes (31 July, A2).
A drone strike caused a fire on two ships at Egypt's Damietta port (30 July), and President El-Sisi warned of regional escalation.
Israel raised its alert level over potential US strikes on Iran (31 July, B2), and reporting described US and Israeli planning for joint strikes on Iranian energy sites (1 August, A2).

Hamas agrees to disarm under a US-brokered Gaza plan as Israel-Iran strikes pause

President Trump announced on 30 July a "historic agreement" for Hamas and other factions to surrender their weapons in Gaza, and on 31 July Hamas agreed to disarm as part of a phased peace plan, with conditions (A2). On 2 August Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu suspended strikes on Iran after reaching parameters for a deal (single-source — treat with caution).

Israel conducted strikes in Gaza on 1 August despite the Hamas pledge, and Gaza authorities recovered 112 bodies from rubble (1 August, B1).
The UN warned of worsening West Bank violence and record settler attacks (29 July) and flagged accelerated legalisation of settlement outposts (27 July, A2).
Egypt intensified mediation, with negotiators due to meet in Cairo on ceasefire implementation (1 August, B2).
In southern Lebanon, five Lebanese soldiers were wounded in an Israeli attack on Bint Jbeil, and the IDF said it had destroyed 1,200 Hezbollah sites over an eight-month operation (2 August).

Jihadist attacks intensify across the Sahel and Lake Chad basin

Seventeen security personnel were killed in an attack and ambush in Niger's Diffa region on 1 August, a day after Boko Haram killed 14 soldiers in N'Guigmi (31 July). Malian forces conducted airstrikes against the JNIM-FLA coalition in Kidal (2 August) and reported clearing militant regroupings in Tessalit (30 July).

Amnesty International called for a war-crimes investigation into the Tabrichat ambush after videos showed captured Malian troops (29 July).
In Nigeria, alleged coup plotters were reported to have planned to recruit Boko Haram and Civilian JTF members (29 July); the armed forces said they had killed 102 fighters and freed 393 hostages in July (1 August, B2), and President Tinubu ruled out ransoms and announced a military expansion (30 July).
The Adré border crossing between Chad and Sudan reopened after detainees were released (29 July), while a fresh influx of Sudanese refugees arrived in the east (30 July) and fighting over water access killed 42 people (29 July).
Niger's junta launched a second phase of general mobilisation (29 July) and marked three years in power (26 July).

Power shortages and currency falls drive economic unrest from Tripoli to Dhaka

Protesters stormed Libya's Mellitah energy complex on 28 July during widespread power cuts, halting gas supply and cutting oil production, and the state electricity company warned of a total blackout if fuel lines stayed closed. In Bangladesh a gas shortage caused nationwide power cuts on 2 August (B1), after July inflation reached a 13-year high of 11.66% (27 July, B2).

Egypt raised electricity exports to eastern Libya by 43% (31 July, B2), and the Central Bank of Libya injected $2 billion to steady the dinar (26 July).
Nigeria topped Africa in petrol-price rises (29 July), and the federal government ruled out an electricity-tariff increase (31 July).
Iran's instantaneous inflation passed triple digits in eight provinces (1 August), and food prices rose year-on-year (2 August).
The Venezuelan bolívar depreciated nearly 20% over July, with the official rate closing at Bs 746.63 (31 July); Egypt's pound weakened to 51.15 to the dollar (31 July).

Country daily updates

Sub Saharan Africa

South Sudan — 99.8 RED, Δ -0.2 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). Suspected White Army fighters attacked Lekuangole County in Greater Pibor on 1 August. The government opened voter registration for December elections on 29 July, and the African Development Bank projected 22% economic growth for 2026 the same day. The cabinet approved an SSP 11.3 trillion budget framework for 2026/27 on 31 July, and President Kiir warned against financial-sector failures and cash shortages. Residents in Juba protested rising prices, a weak pound and high taxes (21 July).

Somalia — 98.3 RED, Δ -0.4. The African Union set an 18–24 month deadline for AUSSOM's withdrawal on 1 August, after troop contributors met in Kampala (30 July) once the US signalled it would pull funding. AFRICOM's commander said continued US support depends on Somalia's political and security progress, and Ugandan President Museveni pledged African support if donors withdraw. International partners pressed Somali leaders for a political settlement by August. About $1 billion in World Bank development financing remained undisbursed (3 August).

DR Congo — 97.8 RED, Δ -0.2. A Maï-Maï attack killed eight people in Mitwaba, Haut-Katanga on 2 August, and clashes between the AFC/M23 and Wazalendo were reported in Shango, Masisi (1 August, B2). Kinshasa accused the AFC/M23 of obstructing the Goma verification mechanism (2 August) and condemned the expulsion of a FARDC officer from the city (1 August). The Ebola outbreak spread across 49 health zones, passing 3,400 cases and 1,500 deaths (30 July, B1). The Constitutional Court approved a referendum law on 29 July, opening debate over a possible third presidential term, and the government raised civil-servant salaries by 30%.

Mali — 91.7 RED, Δ -1.6. Malian forces conducted airstrikes against the JNIM-FLA coalition in Kidal on 2 August and reported clearing militant regroupings in Tessalit (30 July). Amnesty International called for a war-crimes investigation into the Tabrichat ambush after videos showed captured troops (29 July). The US weighed military action against JNIM following the ambush (28 July), which Bamako has rejected. Four people were killed in a land dispute in Nioro (30 July), and Bamako's fuel supply was expected to return to normal (31 July).

Chad — 91.6 RED, Δ -0.6. The Adré crossing with Sudan reopened on 29 July after Chadian detainees were released, and a fresh influx of Sudanese refugees was reported in the east (30 July). Fighting over water access killed 42 people, prompting army intervention (29 July). France began withdrawing its remaining forces from Chad (31 July, B2). UK-Chad trade fell 50% in the first quarter (31 July), and Chad announced its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (27 July).

Niger — 91.2 RED, Δ +1.0. Seventeen security personnel were killed in an attack and ambush in the Diffa region on 1 August, a day after Boko Haram killed 14 soldiers in N'Guigmi (31 July). President Tiani launched a second phase of general mobilisation (29 July) and alleged France is preparing a fresh attack. The junta marked three years in power on 26 July with worsening insecurity and tighter restrictions on freedoms. Niger recorded 117 billion FCFA in lost public revenue in 2024 from border closures (29 July).

Nigeria — 90.6 RED, Δ +2.4. Alleged coup plotters were reported to have planned to recruit Boko Haram and Civilian JTF members (29 July). The armed forces said they had killed 102 fighters and rescued 393 hostages in July (1 August, B2), and President Tinubu ruled out ransoms to bandits and announced a military expansion (30 July). Nigeria topped Africa in petrol-price rises (29 July). The federal government ruled out an electricity-tariff increase, focusing on supply and metering (31 July).

Ethiopia — 88.5 RED, Δ -0.5. Renewed clashes erupted between the federal army and TPLF fighters in western Tigray on 1 August, raising the risk of a border confrontation with Eritrea. The central bank raised its benchmark rate to 16% as inflation climbed (28 July), and the birr weakened to 159.88 to the dollar (31 July). The US expressed interest in Ethiopia's $12.5 billion Bishoftu airport project the same day. Canada updated its travel advisory, warning against non-essential travel (29 July).

Eritrea — 88.4 RED, Δ -0.2. Chronic water shortages continued to disrupt daily life in Asmara (31 July), where the widow of politician Mohammed Ali Alamin was murdered in her home. The nakfa held steady against the dollar (31 July). Sudanese General Burhan visited Asmara for talks with President Afwerki (20 July). Renewed fighting in western Tigray on 1 August carried the risk of drawing Eritrean forces into a fresh border clash with Ethiopia.

Cameroon — 87.5 RED, Δ +0.3. President Biya's extended stay in Geneva drew fresh criticism (27 July), with succession speculation intensifying (31 July). A priest and two others were abducted in the Northwest region (31 July). Colonel Otoulou testified in the Zogo affair at the Yaoundé military tribunal (1 August). Cameroon paid 150 billion FCFA in public-debt interest in the first half of 2026 (29 July).

Middle East and North Africa

Iran — 93.4 RED, Δ +0.4 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). US embassies across the Middle East issued a travel warning on 1 August anticipating fresh strikes on Iran, and tankers near Oman came under fire as Tehran threatened to close shipping routes through Hormuz (1 August, B2). Iran warned regional states against hosting US or Israeli attacks (1 August) and reaffirmed the Hormuz threat after President Trump vowed "very hard" strikes (31 July). The IRGC claimed it had struck and detained tankers in the strait (30 July, Iranian state-affiliated — treat with caution). Instantaneous inflation passed triple digits in eight provinces (1 August), and food prices rose year-on-year (2 August).

Syria — 93.3 RED, Δ +0.4. Israeli forces established new checkpoints and conducted operations in southwest Syria on 2 August, where war remnants killed or wounded 50 civilians the same day (C2). ISIS attacks have killed 52 people since early 2026 (29 July). Development banks re-engaged with Damascus following the end of the Assad regime (28 July). President Sharaa sought a security deal with Israel while ruling out intervention in Lebanon (27 July, B2).

Palestinian Territories — 90.8 RED, Δ -2.3 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). Hamas agreed to disarm as part of a phased Gaza peace plan, with conditions (31 July, A2), after President Trump announced a deal for factions to surrender their weapons (30 July). The White House signalled Trump is weighing fresh strikes on Iran (1 August). The UN warned of worsening West Bank violence and record settler attacks (29 July). Gaza authorities recovered 112 bodies from rubble (1 August, B1).

Libya — 90.4 RED, Δ +0.4. Protesters stormed the Mellitah energy complex on 28 July during widespread power cuts, halting gas supply and cutting oil production, and the state electricity company warned of a total blackout if fuel lines stayed closed. Egypt raised electricity exports to eastern Libya by 43% (31 July, B2), and the Central Bank of Libya injected $2 billion to steady the dinar (26 July). Canada maintained its "avoid all travel" advisory (29 July). A US congressional delegation visited to advance military unification (28 July), and rival leaders were reported to have agreed a roadmap toward elections by February 2027 (30 July, C2).

Lebanon — 87.9 RED, Δ -0.3. Five Lebanese soldiers were wounded in an Israeli attack on Bint Jbeil in the south (2 August), and the IDF's 401st Brigade said it had destroyed 1,200 Hezbollah sites over an eight-month operation. The UN reported Israeli demolitions in Lebanon (2 August), and the UN human-rights chief expressed concern over Israeli strikes (27 July). Consumer inflation on essential goods reached 19.05% in the first half of 2026 (24 July). Air France extended its suspension of Beirut flights (24 July).

Iraq — 84.0 RED, Δ -0.8 (severe on governance, security and operating conditions). US-Saudi airstrikes killed about 20 Popular Mobilisation Forces members in the east (29 July), which Baghdad condemned; the government said it neither approved nor knew of the strikes (31 July, A2). The prime minister ordered a maximum military alert (31 July, B1) while vowing to keep Iraq out of the conflict. The oil minister travelled to Ankara to sign an interim energy deal with Turkey (1 August). Iraq's leader concluded a visit to Washington (2 August).

Egypt — 79.5 RED, Δ +1.6. A drone strike caused a fire on two ships at Damietta port (30 July), and President El-Sisi warned of regional escalation. Egypt intensified mediation on Gaza, with negotiators due in Cairo on ceasefire implementation (1 August, B2), and El-Sisi discussed the region with President Macron (1 August). The IMF approved a $1.8 billion disbursement after its reviews (31 July, A1). The pound weakened to 51.15 to the dollar (31 July).

Israel — 56.7 AMBER (severe on security), Δ -0.3. Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu suspended strikes on Iran after reaching parameters for a peace deal (2 August, single-source — treat with caution). Israel conducted strikes in Gaza on 1 August despite the Hamas disarmament pledge, and Gaza authorities recovered 112 bodies from rubble (1 August, B1). An Israeli officer was moderately hurt in a clash with Hezbollah gunmen (1 August, A2). Petrol prices rose to a nearly 14-year high (30 July).

Latin America and Caribbean

Venezuela — 95.3 RED, Δ -0.4 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). The government and opposition announced the start of in-person transition talks in Caracas on 2 August (A1), following US-backed dialogue that began on 1 August. The official earthquake death toll passed 5,000 (23 July), with 6,000 people still displaced and World Bank damage estimates of $19.6 billion (25 July). Reports put the cost of restoring the country's refineries at $20 billion (30 July). The bolívar depreciated nearly 20% over July, with the official rate closing at Bs 746.63 (31 July).

Guyana — 67.7 AMBER (severe on security and operating conditions), Δ -1.4. President Ali assented to the Guyana Development Bank Act on 31 July, after its passage on 28 July, and appointed a safety and compliance audit team for the maritime sector. A presidential commission of inquiry into the MV Barima ferry disaster was sworn in on 30 July, and protests followed over related murder charges. Guyana Power and Light signed a new agreement as part of a G$69 billion grid overhaul (29 July).

Indo-Asia-Pacific

Myanmar — 96.9 RED, Δ -1.3 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). The president outlined a policy roadmap and criticised the ASEAN peace plan on 1 August, and Min Aung Hlaing rejected the ASEAN consensus (31 July). The EU sanctioned a cyberscam operator and a Myanmar armed group (31 July). Malaysia said it would begin screening 5,000 Rohingya refugees for return (30 July). The central bank set the dollar selling price for trade and the kyat held steady (30–31 July).

Pakistan — 89.5 RED, Δ +1.0. July was declared the deadliest month of the year for Pakistan's security, with 205 lives lost and 401 militants killed (1–2 August, A2). A suicide bomber killed 13 people at an anti-militant rally in the northwest (2 August, B2). The military reported more than 40,000 intelligence operations and over 2,000 militants killed in 2026 (31 July). Monsoon rains and floods have killed more than 100 people since June, and Lt Gen Aamer Raza was appointed the first Commander National Strategic Command (28 July).

Bangladesh — 84.8 RED, Δ +4.3 (largest 48h composite mover). A gas shortage caused widespread power cuts on 2 August (B1). Police headquarters issued a nationwide alert over possible attacks on police vehicles (1 August), and reports recorded 50 journalists attacked in July, 19 of them threatened with death (1 August). July inflation reached a 13-year high of 11.66% (27 July, B2). The central bank cut its policy rate to 9.5%, its first reduction in six years (30 July).

Nepal — 75.0 RED, Δ +1.5. Political parties showed solidarity as communal tensions persisted (2 August), and Home Minister Gurung mediated talks to defuse them (1 August). Political violence and extortion by the Biplav group were reported across several districts (31 July). Prime Minister Balen Shah addressed the nation on the Madhesh violence (31 July). Extreme heat threatened the economy, and opposition protests continued over Shah's border remarks (30 July).

Philippines — 68.7 AMBER (severe on security and governance), Δ -0.2. China conducted naval and air patrols around a disputed South China Sea shoal (1 August), and the armed forces acknowledged a Chinese warship inside the Philippine exclusive economic zone. Senate security was raised after an improvised explosive device was found and a burglary occurred (2 August). The impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte shifted to spending, with a former auditor due to testify (3 August). The central bank forecast July inflation of 5.6–6.6% (1 August).

Indonesia — 60.0 AMBER, Δ +0.5. A ferry fire off Indonesia left dozens missing (2 August). A survey showed public pessimism over President Prabowo's programmes and a fall in his approval (2 August). Around 100,000 people attended a national prayer event at Monas (1 August). The Constitutional Court ordered free-meals funding removed from the education budget (29 July), and the economy is expected to grow above 5% in the second quarter.

Taiwan — 43.9 AMBER, Δ -0.2. Taiwan tracked 10 Chinese vessels and five military aircraft (2 August), and its parties remained deadlocked over a military drone bill (1 August). President Lai met a US House delegation led by Young Kim (31 July). Taiwan announced urban-resilience exercises for August.

South Korea — 35.0 AMBER, Δ +1.6. The stock market fell sharply on 29 July, prompting regulators to announce curbs over concerns about an AI bubble. Former President Yoon Suk Yeol was convicted and had his lawyer's licence revoked (27 July), and South Korea evacuated border residents after a US drone mix-up (30 July).

Europe

Ukraine — 82.1 RED, Δ -0.7 (severe across all four areas — governance, security, operating conditions and the economy). Russia launched about 3,700 aerial weapons against Ukraine in the week to 2 August, and a record 376 missiles over July (1 August, B1). Overnight strikes killed nine people in Kyiv (1 August, B2). Ukrainian and US officials discussed new air-ceasefire proposals. The EU Council revised Ukraine's reform plan, unlocking €8.3 billion for 2026 (30 July).

Georgia — 65.2 AMBER (severe on security), Δ -1.6. A protest march in Tbilisi demanded government policy changes (1 August), and the opposition launched a campaign for emigrant voting rights (31 July). Nauru revoked its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia (31 July). A new initiative group called for a law to protect Georgian identity (30 July).

Bosnia and Herzegovina — 63.0 AMBER, Δ -0.4. The Council of Ministers ratified a southern gas-interconnection agreement with Croatia (31 July). The Federation deputy prime minister announced capital-market reform (29 July), and the Federation government allocated 50 million KM to municipalities (28 July). Canada updated its travel advisory (29 July). Croatian Prime Minister Plenković visited Orašje and pledged support for Bosnian Croats (28 July).

Moldova — 62.9 AMBER, Δ +0.5. Chișinău deployed an emergency water network as drought hit the Dniester (2 August). The national army began exercises near the Transnistria border (1 August). Moldova opened EU accession negotiations on external relations (30 July), and parliament closed its session after adopting key legislation. The government announced plans to cap excessive public-sector salaries (31 July).

Azerbaijan — 61.0 AMBER (severe on governance), Δ -1.2. A court convicted nine journalists and activists on financial charges in the Toplum TV case, handing down long prison terms (28 July). Azerbaijan and Turkey agreed to accelerate a green-energy corridor (1 August), and Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan raised relations to an alliance (31 July). Azerbaijan allocated 711 sq km of Caspian waters for wind power (2 August).

Armenia — 59.6 AMBER, Δ +0.5. Prime Minister Pashinyan called the Eurasian Economic Union "paralysed" and discussed relations with Russia (31 July). Armenia and Iran agreed to expand gas cooperation (31 July). Investigators searched the home of opposition figure Narek Karapetyan (31 July).